Thread by @jorcubsdan

Final Four Thread:
Starting with MSU/TTU, which should be an incredible chess match. TTU’s 1/2 court D allows just .73ppp, historically elite. MSU’s hawk offense and ball movement is the best in the entire country. What gives?

How do you beat TTU’s vaunted “no middle”, overhelping packed in D? Transition, great ball movement, and second chance points. All things MSU does as well or better than anyone in the country.

Gonzaga found success early in transition against TTU, and Cash Winston is the best transition PG in the country. MSU is relentless and efficient in trans O. Quick shots with drag screens before TTU’s D gets set is key

Additionally, Izzo’s hawk offense is like an elite checkdown offense in the NFL. They just keep running crisp offense until they catch you in a bad switch. The problem? TTU is rarely, if ever, caught in a bad switch since they switch 1-5 with the athletic wiry Owens

The Raiders pressure the ball, ice ball screens, overhelp on penetration, basically making it impossible to score at the rim. With MSU’s need to invert O and play fast, this is decidedly NOT a Nick Ward game

Additionally, with that overhelping aggressive D, TTU can be vulnerable on the O glass, a great MSU strength

TTU does have a few things in their favor though. Beard is the best game planner in the country,and vs Gonzaga he used Mooney in PnR way more than I had seen before, and he was phenomenal in his decision making. It was wrinkle I hadnt seen much of, but it took pressure off Culver

TTU has been vulnerable vs pressure w/o a true ballhandler, but Izzo doesnt press, like ever. Izzo wants you to get a shot off so his offense can grab and go. Lastly, MSU has shown vulnerability against even mediocre packed in Ds, like my god forsaken Hoosiers

With Beard’s prep time and the new wrinkle offense, I think TTU can essentially make enough shots to limit MSU in transition, and force them to play against the best defense CBB has seen in a long time
ATS: TTU +2.5
Over 132.5

FF Part 2:
Interestingly, Auburn/UVA is a mirror of TTU/MSU. The Tigers want to get out in transition before the pack line gets set, which is of course easier said than done against a Tony Bennett team

Auburn is fantastic at making a game circus, and playing it on their terms. They had no business beating UK, but Pearl turned it into controlled chaos, where Brown and Harper thrive

If you’re a UVA fan, you have to be worried that Auburn is basically UMBC with elite athleticism and more playmakers. If Brown and Harper are going downhill early before the denial heavy pack line is set, the Tigers could win with relative ease via breakdowns and kickouts

Ive noted Auburn’s poor D rebounding in every game this tourney, exacerbated by the loss of Okeke, and it hasn’t really mattered, even against the country’s best O rebounding teams

Auburn succeeds in breaking down the pack line with their elite team speed, and making this an “Auburn” game.
ATS: Auburn +5.5
Over 131