,
9 tweets,
5 min read
Read on Twitter
Our @HarvardHBS MBA course on #ManagingTheFutureOfWork is underway!
I share a few key ideas from each class that sparked conversation.
Class 17 put our case studies in context by examining the economics of the future of work. #ManagingTheFutureOfWork meets #econtwitter!
I share a few key ideas from each class that sparked conversation.
Class 17 put our case studies in context by examining the economics of the future of work. #ManagingTheFutureOfWork meets #econtwitter!
Workers' prospects have diminished over the past 50 or so years, particularly at the middle-skill level:
-Inequality has grown
-Labor's share of the pie and wages have declined
-Overall labor force participation, especially among prime age males, has peaked and is declining.
-Inequality has grown
-Labor's share of the pie and wages have declined
-Overall labor force participation, especially among prime age males, has peaked and is declining.
At the same time, demographic trends are putting growing pressure on the economy and the workforce. As the population ages and rising female labor participation plateaus (this has been a main driver of growth since 1950), future GDP growth is under stress.
These are the big challenges we are examining as part of MFW, including trying to understand causes and remedies
Tech change impacts jobs, and commentators have taken optimistic and pessimistic views - which side is right?
[Our class leaned modestly towards an optimistic view]
Tech change impacts jobs, and commentators have taken optimistic and pessimistic views - which side is right?
[Our class leaned modestly towards an optimistic view]
This is in part informed by the perpetual cycle of economic transition. Since 1850, overall employment has grown as new kinds of jobs are created, while agriculture and similar have become very productive and allowed labor reallocation
But is this time different?
But is this time different?
Exciting work from @DrDaronAcemoglu and @pascualrpo explores the forces underlying job displacement and replenishment. They identify and quantify the forces that shape automation's impact and that create new tasks (computers created 15m net new jobs, eg).
The job displacement and replenishment forces equaled each other out from 1947-1987. But from 1987-2017, the story is different: displacement is winning out to some degree (but not doomsday levels yet).
Class debated 4 reasons:
-New tech are weak & advancement is getting harder?
-Adoption of new tech takes time?
-Too much investment in automation v new tasks?
-Bottlenecks because people & institutions aren't ready?
The biggest vote getter was bottlenecks... a growing problem
-New tech are weak & advancement is getting harder?
-Adoption of new tech takes time?
-Too much investment in automation v new tasks?
-Bottlenecks because people & institutions aren't ready?
The biggest vote getter was bottlenecks... a growing problem
What we do know: it is VERY difficult to predict the future. The standard error on existing 2030 forecasts may be >1 billion jobs! What do you think?
