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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Of the three options: May's deal, no deal, no Brexit

May's deal has been ruled out coming back for another vote.

So it's either no deal or no Brexit.
I told you about two years ago that no matter what you did or where you went eventually you would be left with this choice.

Leave with nothing or abandon Brexit.
Leaving with nothing is not going to happen. It's technically possible, but it won't happen because parliament has already given itself the means to make sure it doesn't.

Basically, if Theresa May doesn't revoke Article 50, Parliament will.
Theresa May will ask for an extension. Europe will talk around her and ask Parliament face to face, what do you want an extension for?

And parliament will say "Another referendum, then."

And Europe will say alright. You can have a year if it's to have another referendum.
And parliament will accept a long extension for a referendum, and Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will be left standing there while everyone works around them.
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More from @Staedtler see all

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Here's a problem, then. There are points for solving this.

There's a classical music tune I'm thinking of. It's one of the well known ones. If you heard it, you would instantly recognise it.
And even if you could hear me, it would do no good because my voice is such an atrocity, such an abomination, that I could hum Happy Birthday, you wouldn't recognise it
So the problem is, I've got to describe this music in such a way that you will recognise what music I'm talking about, without having to hear it
Read 4 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Told you they'd regret it. The Tories are going to have to sack Theresa May after the local elections, and the leadership contest is going to fuck them up for the European elections three weeks later.
The Tories might just about make it into summer recess with a new leader.
But come September they've got to get a new Queen's speech through parliament.
This is quite a dangerous time for the Tories. Payback for what they've put the country through.
Torn apart left and right, no majority, and now with the looming threat of a Corbyn government and the break up of the union.
Read 4 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
But you keep thinking about this in the wrong way. You can have all the referendums you want.
But you can't stop Brexit by referendum. There's no time.
And this government can't legislate for a referendum anyway. It would fall apart if they try.
And that might be a good thing on itself. But it wouldn't get you a referendum.
Before you can have a referendum you need a government to legislate for one, and you are nowhere near getting a government for that.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. There is a goliath dishonesty afoot among the leave camp that I want no part of. Everyone from Gisela Stuart through to Spiked Online, CrapX and John Redwood are pretending that anything that isn't no deal is not #Brexit. This is a sickening lie.
2. International relations are a rich tapestry of agreements ranging from exchange of letters through to mutual recognition agreements through to formal MoUs and FTAs. Nobody deals one default terms alone.
3. To that that end every nation on earth has binding obligations both with trading partners and international organisations on everything from fishing to space policy. Everything functions on integrated systems of rules.
Read 23 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. #Brexit was never an economic proposition but that doesn't mean we can simply disregard the economic concerns. They are both real and urgent. Our future trade and geostrategic position matters - and for Brexit to be workable long term we need to be mindful of that.
2. On that score we need to start from a position of relative strength - which we won't if we leave without a deal. We'll be taking a hit of anywhere up to 200bn a year in trade by way of losing critical single market participation. That's a substantially weaker starting position
3. Much of our trade is interwoven. It's not a matter of shipping a tin of beans from point A to point B. Complex products are only worth selling if you can sell the service contracts that go with them - and that means being able to dispatch engineers.
Read 25 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. The Rolls Royce story this morning was instructive. They are moving their design approvals work to Germany. They say it won't involve that many job losses - but that's only really the tip of the iceberg for the sector...

#Brexit thread
2. Passenger aircraft go through a series of maintenance checks at depots in the UK. There are deep inspections and none of this can be done without authorisations and certifications. That's the sort of services trade in danger by leaving the EEA. and especially so with no deal
3. Then, if one of these inspections finds a patch of corrosion in the wing, that section of rib or stringer has to be cut out and replaced. A designer has to come up with a solution that not only fits, but also can withstand the stress.
Read 18 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. The no deal #Brexit advocates are in full spin mode. They say we can trade on WTO terms alone. So anybody with a clue asks them about aviation and nuclear sectors etc where they mutter something about bilateral deals. That's an admission that we cannot trade on WTO rules alone
2. They then pretend we can have an amicable negotiated exit to WTO rules. We can't. This would be a package with all the bilaterals covering aviation and nuclear - there bare minimum to avoid civil emergencies. It would not include any mutual recognition on anything.
3. There is no way the EU would sign such an agreement without the existing agreements on citizens rights, the financial settlement and the NI backstop. There is no rowing back from that. The government would have to agree or there is no deal.
Read 18 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Central #Brexit conundrums
It's comical & depressing that the current problems in #Brexit were set in stone 2 years ago by brexit leadership & have hamstrung it since

Brexit reduces to the following:
-The impossible deal
-The frameworks
-The wrong audience
-The failed joker
2) the Impossible deal
Vote Leave won promising a pain free, cost free, FoM free #Brexit
This cannot be delivered

Any meaningful Brexit will hit the economy badly

Any Brexit that doesn't will be a "betrayal of leave!!"

Any party delivering either will be destroyed
3) the Frameworks
The SM, CU & other entities are legal frameworks, made up of EU treaties, WTO & international law.

It is perfectly reasonable for the UK to opt in or out of these frameworks.

It is not reasonable to demand 27 sovereign nations change those frameworks for 1
Read 8 tweets
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Alex Andreou
@sturdyAlex
Okay, then peeps. LONG THREAD. Put down your union flag for a moment and just take some information in. I will try to explain the approaching #Brexit nightmare using a single, calm, factual example, so far largely ignored. I urge you to think, share and talk about this. Ready?
The UK has no structures or agency of its own for approving and licensing medicines. It relies almost exclusively on the European Medicines Agency. The MHRA is an ancillary organisation. In precisely 15 months UK access to the EMA ends; abruptly if the "no deal" voices prevail.
Where are the UK's preparations for replacing this vital framework? The answer is: Non-existent. Not even embryonic. Just a statement by Hunt this summer that the UK "will look to continue to work closely” with the EMA, but we're ready "to establish our own system if necessary".
Read 15 tweets

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