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The European elections are, polls and common sense suggest, going to be a disaster for the Tories. They will surely do a lot to try to avoid them. Their survival instincts will kick in. A thread on the politics. 1/
The *only* way for the Tories to avoid the election is by reaching a deal with Labour on the substance of any Brexit deal; ie on CU, SM, and on Parliamentary control of the future relationship phase of Brexit. 2/
The Labour leadership may therefore be able to get the 'softer' Brexit it says it wants. It has a big choice: either take the Brexit which will be on offer, or hold out for something more. 3/
If it holds out for more (or if TM refuses to compromise), the immediate next step will be the Euro elections. Labour will have to decide what its manifesto for those elections will say. A still better Brexit? A people's vote (and if so, on what)? 4/
It is, finally, decision-time. The issues are framed by accidents of politics. I guess it was ever thus (as David Cameron can testify). But I do not see how Labour can continue to have a policy which appeals to leavers and remainers. It has to choose. 5/5
