,
6 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Having spent a few days in Brussels after last week's Brexit European Council, a short thread on what I picked up. For the first time in three years of Brexit process, there are real divisions among the 27. /1 @CER_EU
Most govts incl Germany (and Tusk and the CommIssion's leaders) wanted a long extension. Macron (and Barnier) wanted a short extension and had only limited support from Sweden, Austria, Malta and Luxembourg. There was some antagonism between the Macron and Tusk entourages. /2
Attitudes towards the British are hardening. Even friends like Sweden no longer think it is worth trying to facilitate a reversal of Brexit. The principal concern of all - in the short and long extension camps - is to minimise the damage that Brexit could cause to the EU. /3
So if the Brits have not sorted out what they want by October 31 they should not assume that the EU will automatically offer a further extension. The French will have more allies for their tough approach, which is to say 'leave, revoke or hold a referendum or election'. /4
There is a real fear that May will be replaced by someone like Boris Johnson who will use a long extension to disrupt the EU from within. The Rees Mogg tweet urging the UK to block key EU decisions succeeded in scaring EU leaders - 9 of them cited the tweet at the summit. /5
Nevertheless key officials believe that the potential for disruption is in fact limited. There are few laws of importance in the pipeline, the MFF budget talks will not get far before next spring, and votes on appointments to jobs are by QMV. Hence all agreed to Oct 31. /ENDS
