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A short thread on why I believe France and the Commission exaggerate the risks of the UK getting a long extension and then @theresa_may being replaced by someone like BJ. Some concern is justified, given @Jacob_Rees_Mogg's call for the UK to cause havoc from within hte EU. /1
But so long as TM is there she'll apply principle of loyal cooperation, as she said in her letter to Tusk. Any successor who wanted to have a constructive relationship with EU - to ensure a smooth Brexit, a good trade agreement or just more time - would also have to behave. /2
But what if a BJ-type leader tried to block budgets & key EU decisions, to provoke a hard Brexit or crash out? Parliament would stop this happening, by defeating govt and if necessary bringing it down. Most MPs v a BJ-style Brexit. A general election v unlikely to change that. /3
As for the fear that if UK takes part in EP elections it will return mainly Faragists, that is almost certainly wrong, Latest polls suggest UKIP at <20% will score less well than last time. The new Change UK cd do well, adding votes to @EmmanuelMacron's centrist bloc in EP. /4
Merkel is right to highlight the geopolitical risks of an acrimonious Brexit that would weaken the West/Europe, when it needs to stand strong v illiberal threats such as Russia, China and Trump. France normally thinks geopolitically but on this occasion may downplay.... /5
..the risks of no deal. Howver, while Macronistas are saying they may veto a long Art 50 extension, I doubt they really will. France will not want to be responsible for the economic and geopolitical consequences of a crash out - including a big hit for Ireland. @CER_EU ENDS
