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Having just returned from Brussels, a short thread on how EU and member-state officials view Brexit. They do not expect cross-talks to go anywhere and think Parliament incapable of choosing any model of Brexit by Oct 31. So they expect UK to ask for further extension. /1 @CER_EU
Both the Commission and the members remain divided over wisdom of granting a further extension, as they were at last summit. The predominant view - most govts, Tusk, Juncker - is grant it, in the hope that sceptics will fear losing Brexit & so finally vote for May's deal. /2
But the TF50/Macron view is don't extend A50. Being tough would force UK to make up its mind on how to avoid no deal cliff edge. So the divergence is tactical - how to best ensure UK ratifies withdrawal agreement. But it also masks division on substance: should UK stay or go? /3
This division differs somewhat from tactical split. FRA has allies like SPN in thinking EU is better off without a UK that will poison its politics from the inside. Many but not all those backing longer extension wd like UK to stay: Nordics, CEECs, IRE, PTGL & some in GER. /4
These splits are becoming mixed up with the race to succeed Juncker as Comm president. Those who don't want to see Barnier in that job are becoming a little critical of his performance on Brexit. HIs recent close alignment with Macron may have hurt his chances of the job. /5
But Barnier remains popular with several members and MEPs, who think he's handled Brexit in a generally professional way. Meanwhile Macron is quite unpopular with EU and national officials because of his mercurial behaviour and stubborn line on Brexit & the EU-US trade talks. /6
As for UK's expected request to extend Art 50 at end-October, most BXL officials expect it to be granted, despite Macron's reservations. Most govts don't want to take responsibility for pushing UK out. "Macron cannot resist pressure from the others to extend" says an official. /7
But another adds that a swarm of Faragist MEPs in the new Parliament, or a BoJo-led govt committed to causing trouble could lose the UK goodwill, and push more govts into the camp those who'd get rid of the Brits, So UK cannot be certain it will get roll-over. /ENDS @CER_EU
