Thread by @wdavison10

Good to attend, especially as only non-scholar, & given my treatment last yr.
Enjoyed @EyobBalcha no holds barred defense of state-led devt, which got equally forthright response from @mihretum

But thread is about how to frame federalism debate...
1/

https://twitter.com/PMEthiopia/status/1119175345037557761

I found the federalism discussion too abstract, binary, decoupled from reality. E.g. need for nuanced grounded approach visible just re. SNNP: it shows system has hardened divisions, yet groups' desire for statehood shows power of self-rule principle enshrined by constitution 2/

Those who decry 'ethnic federalism' as root of probs need to explain, e.g., what they plan not just for Southerners demanding regions, but also how it's not relevant that Oromo nationalism just created political opening (not to mention what they do about TPLF/OLF/NaMA...)
3/

And anyone arguing system was fine by design or working great til Abiy ruined it also needs to wise up

E.g. after harrowing accounts of myriad evils of imperial and Derg eras, in Last Two Frontiers Markakis is withering about EPRDF errors around birth of current order:
4/

Calls for 'soft' unity are justified given rifts, and Abiy's perfect leader for that.

But tough questions are still how to manage very real and formerly suppressed diversity

Move to 'hard' unity needs force or time. Let's forget former, and focus on now
5/

Too often well-meaning commentary takes as starting place a desire to end multinational/'ethnic' federalism.

That's irrational.

At workshop, refrain was used that system's problem is 'not that it's too ethnic, but that it's not federal enough'. That seems more like it
6/

Enhanced regional autonomy scares people as it's assumed to worsen rifts.

But conflict's not caused by people organizing themselves democratically and cooperating with like-minded groups.

It can however be caused by remote power instructing people how to behave and organize
7/

Current problems and challenges are result of many factors, but not least is EPRDF control and authoritarianism that denied genuine autonomy.

Answer to that is reduced central control and repression, not reduced autonomy.
8/

Emerging consensus should therefore be on how to democratize federation as EPRDF control wanes, not how to constrain hard-won group rights. That means e.g. promotion and protection of often-violated individual rights, so self-rule is not excuse for local tyranny and mob rule
9/

It also means e.g. emergence of democratic regional governments that fund spending through local taxation rather than jostling for federal transfers. Essentially, improving multinational federation depends largely on broader program of political and economic reform
10/

That's big enough task without people denying basic realities

First challenge is managing EPRDF decline (or transformation?), but longer-term one's creating democratic federation

Yet starting place for detailed discussions is getting more people to agree on what the task is
END