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William Davison
@wdavison10
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Thread on a bad old GoE eco data habit dying hard. Does anyone actually think these tourism figures are credible? $2.6b in 9 months?? >500,000 visitors to tourist attractions??
I don't. Here's why: 1/
fanabc.com/english/2019/0…
Main reason is Tony Hickey has already explained what's going on in 2017. The gov books transit passengers as 'tourists'. Most probably never leave Bole Intl. This is evidenced by huge discrepancy between 'tourists' and actual visitors to e.g. Lalibela. 2/
thereporterethiopia.com/article/who-co…
Apparently MoCT produces a wildly inflated figure by assuming average 7-day stay (it's prob more like 7-hr in reality!) and daily spend of >$200, then they seem to add in flight ticket as well! The Reporter newspaper's clearly aware of dodgy practices 3/ thereporterethiopia.com/article/wef-in…
Worryingly, MoCT creative accounting then finds its way into national accounts. See here in excellent macro report by Cepheus Capital. 2017/18 service exports put at $4.2b! Think that must be $2b+ Ethiopian Airlines revs, plus dodgy $2b+ tourism revs 4/ cepheuscapital.com/wp-content/upl…
I'm told incorrect service $ earnings are corrected in Balance of Payments, which records that gov doesn't have as much fx as it *should*. Still, it's not even close to acceptable for gov to keep churning out these figs. Nice quick reform win would be ending this practice 5/5
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