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Not surprisingly the IEA is against the idea of the UK in a Customs Union with the EU thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit…
Any serious economic analysis would however say the benefit of lower barriers to our nearest market will outweigh potential benefits from notional future trade agreements. There are however political and foreign policy arguments against a Customs Union 
Once you stop inventing numbers, the question remaining to be addressed is the extent to which the UK is willing to sacrifice access to close markets (and likely economic growth) for political sovereignty.
