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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Here's my take on all the CrAzY* PoLLiNg today. (* Not actually that crazy.) 53eig.ht/2UTkE5z
As the chart says, don't take this *too* seriously, but I feel more strongly than usual about the order of the candidates. Biden is in a tier by himself. Then Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren are in the next tier—not clear in which order.
These tiers reflect (IMO) the likelihood of winning the nomination. But they also more or less match the polling. Sanders is nominally higher than the other 1c candidates, but not much higher, and he has the highest name recognition in that group and is underperforming in IA/NH.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Worth remembering that midterm voters ranked the Russia investigation dead last in importance out of the 12 issues Gallup asked about: news.gallup.com/poll/244367/to…
A lot of liberal/Democratic elites are out of touch with how regular voters think on this issue. They just don't think it's all that important given everything else going on in the country.
Contrast that, by the way, to the stories that have gotten the most news coverage, which of course includes Russia at/near the top. The idea that Democrats haven't done enough to focus the public's attention on Russia seems really wrong to me. tyndallreport.com
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
There's been a lot of bandwidth devoted to the Mueller Report.

The public mostly accepts the Democrats' conclusions, i.e. that Trump hasn't been honest, probably obstructed, probably committed crimes.

It doesn't think that warrants impeachment, though.

pollingreport.com/trump_ad.htm
I don't how public opinion will magically change if the Mueller Report is litigated more. It's been litigated *a lot*. The public has a nuanced view. A lot of people (reasonably IMO) think impeaching an elected president (on the ballot again next year) is too severe a remedy.
Also, the president has a 43% approval rating despite the lowest jobless rate in 50 years. That's because of all the…extracurricular stuff (not just Russia, to be fair). In a democracy, accountability mostly comes from the public, via elections, etc, and Trump is unpopular.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I was more optimistic about Biden's chances than a lotta people here but even I've gotta say I'm a bit surprised by the magnitude of his polling bounce. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
And maybe it ought to prompt a medium-sized* reassessment from news orgs about whether we aren't hearing enough voices from older, nonwhite and non-college Democrats, since they form the backbone of Biden's support.

* Medium-sized because it's still pretty early.
By the way, this is *exactly* one of the reasons that polling is valuable. It serves as a reality check against the implicit biases of journalists and the (largely coastal, white, well-educated, liberal) social circles they inhabit.
Read 3 tweets

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Nick Monroe
@nickmon1112
Chicago Police are pissed off about Jussie Smollett walking free
How Did Jussie Smollett Get ALL Charges Dropped??! Did Police BOTCH this Case?!
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel Calls Jussie Smollett’s Dropped Charges a ‘Whitewash of Justice’ news.yahoo.com/chicago-mayor-…
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Tracybeanz
@tracybeanz
Here’s my take on Brennan saying there would be more Mueller indictments two weeks ago: I think this is one of the more telling things to come out of this saga. Why? Read on.
1. The fact that Brennan is on TV crowing about how much trouble Mueller is going to rain down on Trump means a few things. It means that (a) He is still getting what he thinks is intelligence from someone inside and that intelligence is WRONG. (More)
1a. Which means the person/people are PURPOSEFULLY feeding Brennan bad intelligence or are purposefully GETTING bad intelligence (the leaks are real, the news is fake)
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Lara Friedman🔥
@LaraFriedmanDC
A thread on the @IlhanMN controvery:

Over 15+ yrs working the Hill on Israel-related issues from a non-AIPAC point of view, members/staff (both parties) told me over & over that they agreed with me but didn’t dare say so publicly for fear of repercussions from AIPAC et al.

1/
Crossing these groups, they made clear, would be courting misery - guaranteeing a parade of outraged major donors and potential revenge exacted in the next primary or general election. Every member/staffer has concrete examples of how real a threat this is.

2/
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mcm-ct.com
@mcm_ct
#Chart #EXTRAVAGANZA

Please read the whole thread - will start posting now...but eating dinner so will take a while to get the 30 to 40 tweets done

/1
Given the two crashes in one year and the recent #FANG blow up...how much cash do you think Mutual Funds are holding? How about the lowest ever!

More over their allocations to Stocks remain among the highest ever.

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And how are those stock/equity investments postured?

We’ll very precariously as #NYSE and #Nasdaq #Composite show...completely stopped at major resistance...not only that there is the breadth question which we will address later and is terrible

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Steve Peers
@StevePeers
Thanks to Sam - here's the full text of the draft EU27 guidelines for the future EU/UK relationship. Some thoughts. 1/
2 First, remember these guidelines concern the future relationship after the planned transition/implementation period. This will entail a treaty (probably multiple treaties) which will be separate from the withdrawal agreement (though there may be some links).
3 Secondly, this is a draft which the EU leaders still have to sign off on. Expect some changes in the final text, but not profound ones. After that there is a second stage of more detailed negotiation directives, proposed by Commission, adopted by EU27 ministers (the Council).
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