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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Worth remembering that midterm voters ranked the Russia investigation dead last in importance out of the 12 issues Gallup asked about: news.gallup.com/poll/244367/to…
A lot of liberal/Democratic elites are out of touch with how regular voters think on this issue. They just don't think it's all that important given everything else going on in the country.
Contrast that, by the way, to the stories that have gotten the most news coverage, which of course includes Russia at/near the top. The idea that Democrats haven't done enough to focus the public's attention on Russia seems really wrong to me. tyndallreport.com
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
That's not really what Biden is saying in this passage, though. He's not denying that voters are angry. He's saying he doesn't think anger is a good strategy to win the nomination and the general election.
Which, you can agree with or not, but it's a reasonably sophisticated message. And also a fairly common one that's had plenty of political success. "I know you're angry, but we need to rise above it to heal the country" is very Obamaesque, in fact.
Also, these messages are no doubt poll-tested, and the dude is 20 points ahead of anyone else in the polls. I don't want to use that as a cudgel, but our priors ought to be pretty skeptical of "actually, Biden is out of touch with the mood of the Democratic electorate" takes.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
What maybe lies at the heart of this (leaving aside any personal fandom for Sanders and/or antipathy toward Warren or whatever) is a misunderstanding of how the party nomination process really works on the part of Jacobin and certain other parts of the Sanders left.
For instance, in this fascinating article from January, @sunraysunray doesn't trust that Warren is liked by "mainstream Democratic Party policy types". Actually, that's a HUGE ASSET for her! Building a coalition is how nominations are usually won. bit.ly/2Edt9CC
In the context of Jan., where Bernie is polling at ~20% and maybe you can pretend Biden doesn't exist?, it makes more sense. But Sanders backers, with their allergy to coalition-building, have never had a good plan for how to get beyond ~25-30%. And now he's backslid to ~16%.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Also in today's column, I did a quick-and-dirty thing where I tried to estimate the importance of candidate quality in Senate races. 53eig.ht/2VEUloJ
A very good candidate (someone like Bullock would probably qualify as an ex-governor) might be something like 6-8 points better than an average candidate. That's a lot but... still probably not enough in a state like Montana.
Even a high-quality candidate would need 1 or 2 other things to go right to be a favorite in a red state like MT. Say, a damaged Republican opponent. Or a very favorable national environment, like Democrats had in 2018.
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