Thread by @Trinhnomics

Good morning 🌞 - it is Thursday, which is like Monday in HK after the day off. JPO told markets:

I never promised u a 🌹 garden, as in u can price wutever u want but I won’t limit myself to either direction (cut or hike) based on ur positioning

As in, my dollar ur problem 👉🏻🤗

Data recap: ADP 📈 +275k, better than March & expectations & it shows that wage growth will continue to be robust (meaning higher costs for firms) - markets will wait for NFP

ISM 📉to 52.8 from 55.3 & details are bad (see 👇🏻);

Fed: neutral for now so don't expect a 🌹 garden 😬

Key takeaways of slower ISM report:

a) Mexico border situation a concern
b) Tariffs a concern (US China trade-war)
c) Firms moving out of China to arbitrage tariffs (electronics)
d) Apparel continues to do badly.

Asian PMIs today for April (China shows slowdown but stable) & Indonesia CPI (will rise after elections).

Key pts for Asia: Will likely stabilize but don't expect a V-shaped recovery.

👇🏻Korea April exports contracted but less contraction for China but slowdown of growth to US.

Korean April sector exports:

a) Mobile phones up but components still down, meaning
b) Semiconductor still double digits contraction & phone equipment down
c) Steel & petrol down
d) Display down (Korea losing market share to China).

Meaning, bottomed but still weak. Help needed

Key takeaways of Asia manu PMIs:

a) Regional stabilization but growth remains weak
b) Korea out of contraction but barely just
c) Vietnam expands & gains from tariffs & cost arbitrage
d) Taiwan weak still & India Philippines & Malaysia slow.

So worst is over but very L-shapy 😬

Here are the details of Vietnam's PMIs:

a) Higher employment (notice that China employment declined for manu)
b) Expansion of activities
c) New orders rising.

The cost arbitrage play is happening (reflected in US ISM showing shift out of China; showing in China Caixin also) 🤗

Details of Korea manu PMI:

a) Demand remains weak for domestic & external & downturn in overseas orders in Europe & China
b) By sector, semiconductor & auto remain weak
c) Firms respond by cutting prices & sentiment remains weak.

👉🏻Also reflected in April exports - still weak😬

@Trinhnomics in @endacurran story about Asian PMIs. Managed to use "green shoots but bad roots" for the mixed bag of April PMI reports 😎.

I know, know, @sunchartist hates green shoots usage but in my defense I added bad roots & rhymed w/ mad skillzzz 🕴🏻‍♀️🕴🏻‍♀️👩🏻‍💼

@endacurran @sunchartist @mljamrisko 's story as well! Sorry didn't see 🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️