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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Ah the "In a world of global supply chains and overnight delivery, there is no longer any such thing as distance" argument much beloved of those happy to put up barriers to trade with nearby countries. And still wrong ft.com/content/b43a97…
I once heard the story of a UK professional services company winning a contract in New Zealand on the basis of some highly optimistic assumptions on how staff could travel. They ended up losing money then giving up the contract early.
Face to face contact still matters hugely in trade as most businesses know. And that's easier and more comfortable in markets we know better as being closer. ft.com/content/964afa…
Addendum - many businesses know about gravity in trade, as they have to travel. An example here
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Is there a path forward on WTO reform? I'm more sceptical than @MPetsinger because I see internationalism (institutions, agreements) eroded by national populists - who then find the world isn't quite so simple... chathamhouse.org/expert/comment…
In the case of both Brexit and Trump international agreements were going to be easy, but then it turns out they aren't, and since populists stand against the old party compromises, the only path is doubling down (no-deal / higher tariffs) which doesn't change the problem
Social media encourages populists not to back down, not to compromise etc. International organisations can't work on this basis, so if we want them to continue we're going to have find new solutions - tricky stuff
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
We can have a UK-EU deal after leaving with no-deal (or the EU will shift red lines) or as Farage said yesterday "They'll come running".

Sorry the EU doesn't work like that - and it was those who campaigned for Brexit who always said so
Who said "EU trade representatives have to deal with an unresponsive 1950s bureaucracy and 28 sets of competing special interests. This undermines the EU’s ability to strike trade deals"? Vote Leave.

Now say the EU can do a quick deal with the UK? voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade…
And yes leaving with no deal has an immediate economic impact, as barriers rise on perhaps 60% of our trade. That's not corporate special interests, that's peoples jobs.
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The trade war is back on as US increases tariffs on Chinese goods to 25% even while talks continue - but it has never been clear what the US think they could realistically achieve in these talks (China to buy more US products, or dismantle their economic system?)
"They'll be paying" where they in the immediate term = US consumers paying higher prices. Both sides are poised to lose economically assuming, as seems likely, China retaliates theguardian.com/us-news/2019/m…
Trump thinks he can fix whatever issues he / the administration have concerns about (none of which are new) by breaking the rules - threatening all of us reliant on the WTO system set up to avoid discriminatory bilateral tariffs without sufficient justification /end
Read 4 tweets

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k r i s 🍁 📿
@ektrit
SUPPLY CHAINS

The reason economists are widely mocked nowadays is because nobody pays attention to supply chains.

1/
THREAD
You know why MMT is now famous?

Because nobody ever thinks that supply of goods and services from raw materials to consumable products could ever be disrupted.

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It never occurs to any single theoretician who teaches economics to the masses that crude oil might NOT arrive from point A to B for any reason at all.

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Christophe Barraud🛢
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
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- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
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- Japan (7%)
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Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
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Ben Kelly
@TheScepticIsle
Our EU membership is due to end on March 2019. Calling for 'no deal' preparations to kick in immediately as if anything signficant can be done to mitigage the worse consequences is misguided. It's far too late now.
Planning for 'no deal' would've meant implementing Charlie Elphicke's proposals in “Ready on Day 1”, inc/ investment in the road network approaching Dover, widening the M20, building the new Lower Thames crossing & giving the green light to the cancelled lorry park off the M20
Consider the barriers we face in getting a new railway, road or runway built, and think about whether we’re ready to deal with a total breakdown in trade relations with the EU or can be prepared by March.

Come on now.
Read 36 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
3. Instead we need DfID as the spearhead of our trade policy. There is no reason why we cannot pursue humanitarian goals and enhance our trade while we are at it. For a start we can do a lot with medicines and pharmacy products.
Read 21 tweets

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