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1/ My concern with the trade war:
Even accepting China hawks' premises that action is imperative and tariffs are the best (or only) weapon available, and ignoring the implications for the global trading system, the trade war still seems ill prepared for and poorly sold.
Even accepting China hawks' premises that action is imperative and tariffs are the best (or only) weapon available, and ignoring the implications for the global trading system, the trade war still seems ill prepared for and poorly sold.
2/ If the US is intending to go the distance to confront China, it will involve some pain domestically.
That's inevitable when the world's largest economies swinging body blows at one another.
The Trump administration has failed to prepare the US public for that pain.
That's inevitable when the world's largest economies swinging body blows at one another.
The Trump administration has failed to prepare the US public for that pain.
3/ First, there hasn't actually been a coherent public case for WHY.
I'm not a China expert, but those I read say there are plenty of legitimate concerns, from human rights, to IP theft and massive state subsidies.
I'm not a China expert, but those I read say there are plenty of legitimate concerns, from human rights, to IP theft and massive state subsidies.
4/ Yet I would struggle to tell you what specifically the Trump administration is targeting here (99% sure they're not avenging incarcerated Muslims, for example).
Just saying "they took our jobs" is neither accurate nor compelling, which matters because...
Just saying "they took our jobs" is neither accurate nor compelling, which matters because...
5/ Second, the Trump administration has consistently pretended there won't be any pain.
Trump has repeatedly (and as late as this week) sold this trade war as one the US can engage in not only painlessly but to its own benefit.
That's optimistic.
Trump has repeatedly (and as late as this week) sold this trade war as one the US can engage in not only painlessly but to its own benefit.
That's optimistic.
6/ Either China can be easily put back in its box with a few tax increases on Americans easily offset by subsidies, in which case it probably isn't the generational threat analysts imply...
Or this is going to get really bruising.
Or this is going to get really bruising.
7/ If there are genuine wide spread job losses, if pension funds crater, if investment dries up, the Trump administration is going to need the US public to stand strong.
Except they told them they wouldn't have to.
Except they told them they wouldn't have to.
8/ Third, Trump's rhetorical approach to foreign policy generally and this trade conflict specifically not only makes it politically difficult for China to compromise but makes it virtually inevitable Democratic candidates will have to run against him on this issue.
9/ The Chinese will be severely tempted to just wait out any storm, convinced Trump's inability to form a coalition to do anything will ultimately be their salvation.
9/ Now, I realize "confronting China" currently polls reasonably well.
Wars always do. Until the dying starts.
/End
Wars always do. Until the dying starts.
/End
