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1/ * Brexit, economics and outrunning zombies. A thread. *
There is a misconception which has been pillaging my sepulcher for some time.
The response to economic damage various Brexit scenarios entail, is often a binary, "the UK will still be a good place to do business."
There is a misconception which has been pillaging my sepulcher for some time.
The response to economic damage various Brexit scenarios entail, is often a binary, "the UK will still be a good place to do business."
2/ This is unquestionably true, even if it does sound like the kind of soundbite a soulless focus group conjures forth for £10 a head plus pizza.
However, it misunderstands a fundamental truth about both the global economy and zombie apocalypse survival.
However, it misunderstands a fundamental truth about both the global economy and zombie apocalypse survival.
3/ When fleeing the shambling dead, the most important thing isn't how fast you are but how fast you are compared to the delicious fatty snacks running beside you.
In an increasingly global economy where capital and purchasing are mobile, comparative advantage is king.
In an increasingly global economy where capital and purchasing are mobile, comparative advantage is king.
4/ To cause significant economic hardship for the British people, a given Brexit scenario doesn't have to turn the UK into an unattractive investment destination, services supplier or manufacturing base. It just has to nudge it behind alternate options in the region.
5/ Britain enjoys a lot of competitive advantages:
- A well educated population;
- Stable government (don't laugh);
- Business friendly regulations;
- English language;
- Reasonable infrastructure;
- People inexplicably like London.
Clearly, none of these are going away.
- A well educated population;
- Stable government (don't laugh);
- Business friendly regulations;
- English language;
- Reasonable infrastructure;
- People inexplicably like London.
Clearly, none of these are going away.
6/ Yet the UK's integration into the EU is also a source of advantage. One Brexit will either degrade or eliminate entirely.
As the UK jogs ahead of the zombies, various Brexit models determine whether it will put on heavy boots (EFTA) or blow its leg off (No-Deal).
As the UK jogs ahead of the zombies, various Brexit models determine whether it will put on heavy boots (EFTA) or blow its leg off (No-Deal).
7/ Further, by leaving the EU zombie survival community, the UK creates every incentive for the EU to prioritize its own members survival.
They may not trip you (because a fall could be messy and hurt them too) but they have every incentive to drag their Members ahead of you.
They may not trip you (because a fall could be messy and hurt them too) but they have every incentive to drag their Members ahead of you.
8/ Proponents of various models have suggested that freedom from the EU pack will allow the UK to compensate for heavy boots or a missing leg by boosting speed through an independent trade policy.
Most trade experts find this unconvincing. The gains just aren't there.
Most trade experts find this unconvincing. The gains just aren't there.
9/ None of the above means Brexit shouldn't happen (not my place to say), or that the UK won't survive it as a relatively prosperous country (it will).
But a policy choice which doesn't knock you over can still be critiqued for slowing you down... and the zombies cometh. /end
But a policy choice which doesn't knock you over can still be critiqued for slowing you down... and the zombies cometh. /end
