Thread by @uk_domain_names

*FINAL* Guide to pro-Remain Tactical Voting at the European Elections

The aim of the guide is to maximise the pro-Remain vote so that it produces the highest possible number of MEPs.

#marr #ridge #pienaar #bbcsp #WestminsterHour #bbcnews #BBCPolitics #C4News #itvnews #skynews

Since we're trying to maximise the number of MEPs won by pro-remain parties, that means voting for the parties that have the best chance of getting MEPs, not necessarily those you usually support. Brexit's the massive issue that's front and centre this time around.

Brexit trumps party loyalty. It trumps past grudges. It trumps everything. This isn't a winner-takes-all general election. Nobody's forming a government on the back of this. But it's a chance to send a loud, clear message.

General Guide
- Vote for pro-Remain parties: LibDems or Greens in England (Change UK have their hearts in the right place, but are too far behind to pick up MEPs), SNP in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales, Sinn Fein/Alliance/SDLP in Northern Ireland.

- Labour are not a pro-Remain party, despite the loud public noises by individual Labour politicians. That was confirmed by their manifesto launch, with its huge number of hurdles before a possible people's vote. Do not waste your pro-remain vote on them.

- There's no possible way that minor parties and independent candidates will win MEPs. The barrier's just too high, with around 100,000 votes needed in the "easiest" seats in the UK.

- Turnout is key. Please encourage your friends, family and colleagues to vote too. In normal times, people are so apathetic, only about a third of registered voters actually vote. These are *not* normal times, so we need a big turnout!

Specific Area by Area Guide

1. East Midlands (5 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: LibDems. There are too few MEPs up for grabs for both the LD and Greens to each pick one MEP up, and the LD have been consistently ahead of the Greens by quite a margin in all of the last 6 polls.

2. East of England (7 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: Greens. They and the LibDems are both in the running to pick up an MEP, but the LD are far ahead. Since relatively few people vote tactically, and Greens need the votes more, they're the obvious first choice.

3. London (8 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: Greens or LD. Both are in the running for MEPs (1 or 2 for the LD, 1 for the Greens). Change UK are at their strongest in London, but still way too far behind to win an MEP even with some tactical help.

4. North East (3 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: Libdems. They won't get an MEP, because with only 3 available a party needs a massive vote share to get one, and no pro-Remain parties does... but they are the clear pro-Remain frontrunner in the NE.

5. North West (8 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: tough. Greens need to pull ahead of the Tories to pick up an MEP, but LibDems have outside chance at getting 2 MEPs (1 is a dead cert). So vote your heart between LD or Green. Change UK are nowhere on just a third of the Green vote.

6. South East England (10 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: LibDems. They have an outside chance of picking up 3 MEPs (2 MEPs look solid). Greens definitely will get 1 but can't get 2. Change UK have solid support but nowhere near enough to get 1 MEP.

7. South West England (6 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: LibDems. They have an outside chance of stealing a 2nd MEP off the Brexit Party (1 MEP for the LD is a dead cert). Greens have 1 MEP wrapped up, but can't get a 2nd as they're miles behind the LD.

8. West Midlands (7 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: LibDems. Although both LD and Greens look set to get 1 MEP each, the LD are polling slightly behind the Greens and neither can get 2 MEPs, so voting LD shores up their 1 MEP. Change UK aren't even half-way to getting an MEP.

9 Yorkshire and the Humber (6 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: LibDems or Greens. Both are on course for 1 MEP each, and both are far from getting a 2nd MEP. LD are slightly ahead in the polls, but either is a good choice. Change UK are on a third of the vote needed for an MEP.

10 Scotland (6 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: Scottish Green. They have an outside chance of getting 1 MEP, and are comfortably ahead of the LD in the polls (LD too far behind for an MEP). Or vote SNP, who are going to get at least 3 MEPs and will be in contention for a 4th.

11. Wales (4 MEPs available)
Tactical vote: Plaid Cymru. They are the only pro-Remain party with any chance at an MEP (only 4 are available for the whole of Wales, so a huge vote is needed to get one)

12. Northern Ireland
Tactical vote: complicated because it's transferrable vote with multiple choices. Clear pro-Remain parties in the running to get enough votes for an MEP are Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP. (DUP and UUP are pro-Brexit, and other parties are too small.)

(NOTE: in preparing the above, I looked at Yougov/Datapraxis regional polling, Yougov and Comres regional polling, London and Wales-specific polling, and the national trends over the last few polls. This isn't an exact science, but it's the best I can do with the available data!)

Please RT and share this if you find it useful, and above all, encourage everyone you know to:
1. Come out and vote on Thursday 23 May
2. Not waste their vote on Labour (this isn't a GE or a local election, it's about Brexit, Brexit and Brexit)
Thanks!

Parting thought: if any one pro-Remain party claims to be *the only* right answer across the whole of the UK, that's not true. Can't blame them for politicking in the run-up to an election, but it doesn't mean they're right.

Added: here's some background at the national level. As you'll see, there's variance between polling companies, but the results fall into broad ranges and there's not been a lot of movement the last 10 days.

Added: here's a thread explaining why my recommendations differ from others (summary: it's not an exact science).

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