Thread by @Trinhnomics

Taiwan export orders fell -3.7% YoY, better than expectations of -6.4% & previous -9%. But don't get excited, the MOEA sees May export orders falling -7.6%-10% YoY, meaning WORSE than April so no V-shaped recovery here.

We get South Korea's 1st 20-day tom & will be L-shapy 🤢

Asia April exports (or lack there of) %YoY 🤢:

China -2.7%
India -0.6%
Indonesia -13.1%
Singapore NODX -10%
Korea -2%
Taiwan -3.3%
Vietnam 7.5% 👏🏻

Btw, according to Taiwan's MOEA, it sees May WORSE. We'll find out tomorrow for Korea if that's true 😬

Export performance is consequential. Asian FX in 1yr:

KRW 9.8% cheaper (if earn in HKD, time to go shopping in Korea 👜👢💄)
CNH 8.4% on sale!!!
AUD 7.9% cheaper!!! Opal jewelry or Sydney real estate anyone?
EUR cheaper too 🤗

DXY so strong & that's not good news for EM

Not all Asian FX is weak:

The Thai Baht got a super strong REER (rallied versus USD & defo versus others like CNY) & the Dong is firm too😉, even w/ softness versus the USD 🤗.

Wait a minute, the THB is 10% higher than CNY in 1yr! Can't be good for tourism as that means Thailand got more expensive for Chinese tourists😱

Yep, just refreshed my tourist arrivals data & Chinese tourists contracted -2% YoY from -11% in Feb so down. Tourist arrivals down -1% in March 😮

Baht REER wayyyy too tight, esp versus CNY & that's defo not good news for the current account (exports contracting too)