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For so long and even to many now, the entirety of the trade war is contained in Trump Tweets and and Walmart prices, but as I feel like the conversation has changed now and we need to ask a more fundamental question about the objective of the trade war we are in: 1/n
What level of decoupling between China and the US economies is appropriate and how to achieve that? As a simple example, I do not believe it is unreasonable for the US government to say that a PLA owned company should not be a surveillance camera supplier to the US. 2/n
You then quickly get into second order questions of how to achieve those specific ends. For instance, if the US government wants to help allies and harm threats, what is the best way to nudge companies to shift production else where? Tariffs? Sweetener inducements such as no 3/n
tariffs on goods imported from other countries? Another question, that few are prepared to deal with, is that I see constant calls from people calling on the US government to establish plans to tell the market what to do in these types of situations. That's not how markets 4/n
work except in Chinese "markets". There is something to be said for China going to Africa, giving a suitcase of cash to the rulers kids, installing oppression technology, with a bank in the entourage to write the check. That is not how America works but it does seem like 5/n
new strategies are called for. Fundamentally, this thread is about the fact that other than raging against Trump, there has been very little thought given to question of what does the new relationship with China look like going forward, what do we accomplish bilaterally, 6/n
and how do we need to remake our foreign policy multilaterally because China is forcing questions that have not been asked or dealt with in a long time. Done.
