Thread by @benrileysmith

Got to look round Trump Campaign HQ for this @TelegraphMag long read on his re-election hopes.

30+ staff. $100m+ raised. Economy booming, lots of 2016 pitch adopted. Plus incumbents rarely lose.

In short, he’s better placed to win than you may think: telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/tru…

Headquarters is on 14th floor of a skyscraper in Arlington, looking across the river to central Washington DC. Belonged to a financial trading firm before they moved in early this year.

📷 by TJ Kirkpatrick

Look closely and you spot the telltale Trump signs. This is the door of the campaign’s comms director...

Two offices also had a printout of the NY Post front page on Mueller - NO COLLUSION; NO OBSTRUCTION - stuck to the door.

Trump, as his staff all say, is the campaign arbiter - the chief director, spokesman, strategist, fundraiser all wrapped in one. But it’s in this bunker that the nuts and bolts of his 2020 bid are being put in place.

Brad Parscale, the bearded Texan who ran Trump’s 2016 social media drive, is 2020 campaign manager. He’s a 6ft 8in former college basketballer.

Sources said he talks to Trump a few times a week and Jared Kushner (Trump son-in-law + influential adviser) every day.

Once again massive rallies will be a big part of the campaign - but not just because they provide Trump unfiltered to TV viewers. They are seen as a critical tool for getting data from supporters....

When people sign up for rallies their data is stored. When they queue they’re asked for more info. Once inside they’re encouraged to text WALL or other slogans to a campaign phone#, again giving data.

All helps campaign hit their target of 2m “volunteers” (loosely defined).

Donations is an area where Trump campaign is already succeeding. They smashed individual Democrat 2020 rivals in Q1 2019 fundraising.

Aides say they have 21 times more cash in the bank than Obama did at this point in his 2012 re-election bid.

Trump’s strongest card is of course the economy. Growth above 3%. Unemployment rate lower than any time since 1969 - when man first walked on moon.

Here’s how he’s converting that into retail politics on ground in swing states (eg Minnesota). Imagine undecided voters listening.

Trump can also reasonably claim to have implemented a lot of his 2016 pledges. Here’s a short list.

Yes, lots of notable misses too - Obamacare, building the wall, infrastructure, etc.

But, whatever the merits, he’s largely governed as he laid out on the 2016 campaign trail.

This is not to say he’s guaranteed a win. Most Americans disapprove of the job he’s done (no other president has failed to get a single 50%+ approval rating from Gallup).

He won by a tiny margin in 2016 (80k votes in 3 swing states). We don’t know who Democrat candidate will be.

But over the next 18 months Dems have to whittle two dozen hopefuls to a single nominee, pick a message that resonates, design a campaign from scratch, then beat Trump.

In other words, Britain - don’t assume Trump will lose in 2020.

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