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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
"Parliament will be vehemently opposed to that strategy." Philip Hammond to #Marr re leaving EU 31 Oct with no deal
"A PM has to command the confidence of the House of Commons. How will they govern if they have defied parliament on such an important issue?" Hammond
Would he vote against his government on a confidence motion? A hypothetical Q he doesn't want to start considering now, says Hammond
"This is a very difficult situation: it would challenge not just me but very many of my colleagues": Hammond
Earlier: "I would also remind colleagues that £39bn [EU exit bill] is over a 60-year period; it is not available on day one."
A powerful interview with a serious, pragmatic politician who is about to be swept away by the constitutional crisis
Yes, I was thinking of Philip Hammond when I wrote this about who – apart from Jo Johnson – might vote to bring down a no-deal PM independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Final vote share, with changes from 2014 assuming the Brexit Party is Ukip's successor:
Brexit Party 32% +7
Lib Dem 20% +13
Labour 14% -11
Green 12% +4
Conservative 9% -15
SNP+PC 5% +1
ChangeUK 3% +3
Ukip 3% (27% last time, but Brexit+Ukip +7 w rounding)
bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cr…
And you know what that means? We have a winner of the sweepstake! The best guess was just 3 %age points out (+2 on Lab, -1 on Green)
Starting with an honourable mention for @John_S_Macleod – a total of 10 points out, but he entered on 1st day, 5 May, so did not have advantage of later opinion polls: Brexit 30%, Lab 15%, Con 10%, Lib Dem 18%, Green 8%, ChUK 3%
Read 5 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
The Tories are doomed – but Farage didn’t do well enough to force a no-deal Brexit. Me on European elections independent.co.uk/voices/europea…
The Conservative Party and the Brexit Party have both failed. Labour didn’t do well either, but its setback may be temporary. – My assessment of the European elections
It was great night for the Tory party
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
If we assume the Brexit Party is Ukip's successor, the share and change figs are:
Brexit Party 31% +7
Lib Dem 21% +14
Labour 15% -11
Green 12% +4
Conservative 9% -15
ChangeUK 4% +4
bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cr…
And the 5 Remain parties (incl SNP and Plaid) on 40%, well ahead of Brexit plus Ukip on 35%
But then the Tories are clearly a Leave party so it should be 40% Remain, 44% Leave and 14% Don't Know
Read 9 tweets

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The Columnist
@Sime0nStylites
Philip Hammond!

#marr
Sad koala.
Big frown.
Read 19 tweets
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Robert Saunders
@redhistorian
If we're to pull anything from the wreckage of this Parliament, we need to restore the convention that govts resign when they cannot carry their major legislation. It's one of those rare policies that's good for Parliament, good for the executive and good for democracy. [THREAD]
2. It's good news for the Executive, because it raises the stakes for MPs like Boris Johnson, whose ambitions loom larger than their principles. It concentrates the minds of rebel MPs, who must decide whether they are willing to collapse their own government by voting against it.
3. It's good for Parliament, because it stops a government from simply ignoring MPs' decisions. It protects them from the kind of manoeuvre that Theresa May has tried to use against them: letting the doomsday clock run down to midnight, in order to crank up the pressure on MPs.
Read 9 tweets
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Robert Saunders
@redhistorian
Tonight is a reminder of the constitutional damage that's been done by letting party members - not MPs - choose party leaders. It has severed the central artery of the British parliamentary system: that a Prime Minister must command the confidence of the House of Commons.[THREAD]
2. Traditionally, when a Prime Minister can no longer carry their legislation through the Commons, there are two possible remedies: you can either change the Prime Minister, finding someone who *does* command a majority, or elect a new Parliament. Both are now more difficult.
3. If May were to resign, the new leader would be chosen by Tory activists - who mostly support "No Deal". But MPs overwhelmingly *oppose* No Deal. Far from solving the problem, the new PM would be even more out of step with parliamentary opinion than May.
Read 8 tweets
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#Brexit #NoDeal #LetsGoWTO #Leave #EU
@astro_trader
After 50 years of voting for the Conservative Party, I will, unless Brexit is delivered fully, resign my membership & cast my vote in favour of his new Brexit Party…
If only to keep any “heat” on European Council’s charming President, Donald Tusk!

-Telegraph Letters
#Brexit #EU
Surprised Sir Oliver Letwin says he didn't believe in his party’s 2017 manifesto “No Deal is better than a Bad Deal"
Sir Oliver should remember whole of Dorset, not just his constituency, backed Leaving #EU & prefers No Deal to May’s wishy-washy plan.
Rethink, Sir Oliver!
#Brexit
Don’t remember anyone talking about “Deal” or “No Deal” when EU referendum was held.
Options were Leave or Remain & Leave won!
Had we left immediately after referendum, it would all be settled now.
Mrs May should tell the #EU we voted to Leave & that’s what we are doing!
#Brexit
Read 8 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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Chuka Umunna
@ChukaUmunna
This is simply not true - if the executive can’t command a majority in the House of Commons, you can’t govern. It’s been that way since the last century. It’s called parliamentary democracy!
The more I think about this, the more ridiculous this claim by the PM seems. She clearly does not understand the UK’s, albeit unwritten, constitution. Parliament acts as a check and balance on the executive, not a rubber stamp. This is not a dictatorship.
It is even more ludicrous for a PM who lost her majority, has lost her authority and relies on the DUP to have any hope of getting her bills through in a hung Parliament, to come out with this nonsense. It flies in the face of her current political reality.
Read 5 tweets

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