Thread by @JohnRentoul

If we assume the Brexit Party is Ukip's successor, the share and change figs are:
Brexit Party 31% +7
Lib Dem 21% +14
Labour 15% -11
Green 12% +4
Conservative 9% -15
ChangeUK 4% +4
bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cr…

And the 5 Remain parties (incl SNP and Plaid) on 40%, well ahead of Brexit plus Ukip on 35%

But then the Tories are clearly a Leave party so it should be 40% Remain, 44% Leave and 14% Don't Know

Updated. If we assume the Brexit Party is Ukip's successor, the share and change figs look like this:
Brexit Party 32% +8
Lib Dem 20% +14
Labour 14% -11
Green 12% +4
Conservative 9% -15
ChangeUK 4% +4
Nats 4% +1
Ukip 3%

With just Scotland & NI to declare, close to final vote shares for GB (& change fig assuming Brexit Party is Ukip's successor):
Brexit Party 32% +7
Lib Dem 20% +14
Labour 14% -11
Green 12% +4
Conservative 9% -15
ChangeUK 3% +3
Nats 4% +1
Ukip 3%

So that's Leave (Brexit, Ukip, Con) 44%, Remain (Lib Dem, Green, ChUK, Nats) 40%, Don't Know (Lab) 14%

But the country is actually split 3 ways. Leave with no deal 35%; Leave with a deal (Con & Lab) 23%; Remain 40%

Which is no mandate for a no-deal Brexit: Tory leadership candidates please note

Something else for Tory leadership candidates to ponder

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132738528432074752