Thread by @narula_mayank

Thread on why 2019 is potentially looking like 1984 landslide election:

If we look at electoral history of last 3 decades, BJP emerged as SLP in 1996, 1998, 1999 and won outright majority in 2014.

1996: 161 (20.3%)
1998: 182 (25.6%)
1999: 182 (23.8%)
2014: 282 (31.3%)

Now why these 4 elections only?

Because after a certain threshold, when one party emerges as single largest party, no. of seats increases with every incremental 1% vote.

Seats per 1% of votes for 4 elections with BJP as SLP:

1996: 7.9
1998: 7.1
1999: 7.6
2014: 9.0

Next question is how much vote share BJP is supposed to get. Now it is relatively easier for a psephologist to predict vote share, but trick is to get the conversion right.

If (a big if) we go by @5Forty3 poll, BJP is looking to gain a whopping 4.5% vote share (31.3% to ~36%).

NDA on the whole, is looking to gain 7.5% vote share from 38.5 to 46. If we consider that in 2019, TDP left NDA and JDU joined, both are nearly comparable.

For NDA, seat per 1% vote for 2014 stands at 8.7, slightly lower than 9.0 of standalone BJP.

Now coming to seat conversion, where it gets interesting.

There are 2 key variables, vote share and seats per 1% of votes.

Now from statistical point of view, with rising vote share, seats per 1% vote for BJP can go even higher than 9.0.

But two factors are important here:

1. Relatively united opposition in UP and Karnataka.

2. New growth coming from erstwhile virgin states of West Bengal, Odhisa and Kerala.

So let's assume that even with higher vote share 9.0 of 2014 is the peak seats per 1% voteshare.

Now let's see how it turns out for various % voteshare scenerios.

First figure is no. of seats with 7.5 and second is with 9.0, at different predicted voteshares. Third is average of higher and lower.

31%: 232, 282, 257
32%: 240, 288, 264
33%: 247, 297, 272
34%: 255, 306, 281

35%: 262, 315, 288
36%: 270, 324, 297

Similarly for NDA, assuming voteshare ranging from 38% to 45% and seats per 1% of votes of 7.5 and 8.5:

38%: 285, 323, 304
40%: 300, 340, 320
42%: 315, 357, 336
44%: 330, 374, 352
45%: 338, 382, 360

So upper range for BJP (36% votes) and NDA (45% votes) potentially is 324 & 382 respectively, making it almost as good as 1984. Or even better, if you consider that NDA is close to zero in two states of AP and Telangana.

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