Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

China kidnaps Canadians: After Canada arrested Huawei’s CFO for extradition to the US, China retaliated by arresting two Canadians & pressuring Canada to drop the case. Canada stood firm: Meng is now on C$10m bail and faces court Feb 6th

.@globeandmail argued that by “kidnapping two Canadians, the hard men of Beijing have shown their true faces.” As a result, Canada “is being forced to wise up about the nature of… China” and reset the relationship based on what China is, not what Canada wants it to be.

A bad week for Theresa May: She postponed a scheduled parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal as she lacked the votes, and faced a leadership challenge. She survived, but conceded that she won’t lead her party to its next general election, which she claims will be in 2022.

After the no confidence vote, @thomaswright08 argued May had 3 options: (i) call a general election (ii) run the clock and hope the EU blinks – “quite the gamble” (iii) try a parliamentary vote in the new year, this time threatening a second referendum if rebels don’t back her.

Reports suggest May appears to be picking option (iii) but without the referendum threat: She’s “determined to… bring her deal back to parliament before 21 January in the hope the Christmas break focuses MPs’ minds.” And, she’ll speak on Monday against a second referendum.

US Senate condemns MBS: the US Senate defied Trump to vote in favour of (symbolic) resolutions to (i) remove US forces from Yemen (excl. counterterrorism) (ii) blame MBS for Khashoggi’s murder. The former resolution passed 56-41, while the latter passed unanimously.

But, @TheSoufanGroup argued that the Senate’s Yemen resolution “is unlikely to become law” as the House “might not pass it” and there is not enough support to override a “certain veto” by Trump. But, it signals “how sharply congressional sentiment has shifted” against the Saudis.

Three thought-provoking articles:

.@DSORennie argued China should spend less time worrying about “hawks scheming to contain China” and more “worrying about why ex-friends have slid in a hawkish direction”. Many former “advocates of engagement” have been “disappointed by [China’s] illiberal, aggressive choices”.

Jake Sullivan challenged @stephenWalt & Mearsheimer’s case that the US’ pursuit of liberal hegemony has been a disaster. He says their case (i) unfairly assigns bad faith to US officials (ii) leans heavily on counterfactuals (iii) doesn’t speak to the future. We await the reply.

.@GrahamTAllison argued that “China’s strategic foresight and exquisite diplomacy, on the one hand, and U.S. and Western European clumsiness, on the other, has produced an increasingly thick and consequential alignment between two geopolitical rivals, Russia and China.”

Three events to watch in the coming week:

Yemen ceasefire: UN envoy Martin Griffiths has brokered a breakthrough ceasefire deal for the port of Hodeida – a key lifeline for aid. Skirmishes continue ahead of the 18 Dec deadline, but it’s normal for it to take time for a ceasefire to be communicated to an operational level

.@peterjsalisbury argued the UN Security Council should “draft a new resolution aimed at stopping a battle for... Hodeida." It would "either help consolidate gains made in Sweden or prevent backsliding before the next round of talks, tentatively slated for the end of January.”

North Korea up to its old tricks: NK officials have released a statement crediting Trump for his willingness to improve relations, but slamming the State Dept. as “bent on bringing the DPRK-U.S. relations back to the status of last year which was marked by exchanges of fire.”

.@NarangVipin explained: take with the usual grain of blustering salt. But the effort to drive a wedge between Trump and his admin persists. It’s why NK keeps ghosting Pompeo... & holding out for Trump-Kim’s second date, banking they can get concessions directly from him.

Putin Press conference: Vladmir Putin will hold his annual end of year press conference. The lengthy event is “for the most part predictable and heavily scripted” but from time to time, independent journalists catch Putin with pointed questions.

.@McFaul argued that Vladmir Putin didn’t get a short-term payout from Trump’s victory – such as the lifting of sanctions. But the long-term payout - “the chaos that President Trump has caused to the Western Democratic world…has been extraordinary” for Putin.

Huge thanks to everyone who has been liking, retweeting and spreading the word. We are humbled to have reached almost 25,000 followers, including some of the world’s most influential diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors