1) Revs/EPS technically "beat" (also featured spectacular -14% GMs). The bottom line beat was driven by a 30% sequential decline in OpEx, which I find highly sus. They reported a ~$400M net loss but burned $1B 🤔
$NIO $NIOQ 5/
The reality is:
- The company is ~1 quarter away from insolvency without a HUGE equity raise,
- They just guided down bigly for Q2 (-25% from Q1); cash burn likely gets worse $NIO $NIOQ 8/
- Recent subsidy cuts in China for $NIO have been even more draconian than those in the US for $tslaq
$NIOQ 10/
- Less than a year after first vehicle deliveries (June '18) they are already in hardcore cost-cutting mode $NIO $NIOQ 12/
- High likelihood of accounting trickery in Q1 $NIO $NIOQ 13/
Full disclosure: I'm short $NIO in size, but $TSLA short still twice as big. /E