Thread by @CVCResearch

So how is $HIIQ POSSIBLY going to grow revenues +24% in 2019 as guided? It's got to be BS, right?
One rule change governing ST Medical plans made in '18 by Trump should be a huge benefit to $HIIQ's '19 growth.
ehealthinsurance.com/resources/indi…

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$HIIQ
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So what will be the effect of this rule change? Let's just say STM plan enrollment is expect to increase by 600,000 in 2019, an approximate doubling of the size of the STM Medical market (25% of $HIIQ 2018 revenue).

consumerreports.org/health-insuran…

$HIIQ
2/

The new Trump rule expands access for ST Medical plans from being available to consumers for up to 3 months to up to 36 months, making them a more attractive a solution for consumers who simply can't afford $400+/mo ACA-compliant plans (ST Medical are ~$100/mo).

$HIIQ
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While ST Medical plans can prove to be quite deficient in terms of the limits on what they cover, they are FULLY LEGAL and more favored under the law as of recently.
Additionally the individual penalty for not having an ACA-compliant plan (such as STM) goes away in '19
$HIIQ
4/

To summarize:
1) New ST Medical plans set to DOUBLE in 2019 on new Trump rule (per HHS est)
2) ST Medical was 25.4% of $HIIQ revenue in 2018
3) STM plan churn should decrease a lot given allowed increase from 3->36 months
This change alone in STM could allow $HIIQ to grow +24%
5/

So if the change to STM rules can allow $HIIQ to hit its 22%-25% revenue growth guidance alone, what about the rest of its business? While STM revenue vs other revenue was not broken out until 2018, we have clues that HBIP was more of a growth driver than STM in 2018.

6/

And to be clear, HBIP, or "health benefit insurance plans" is a distinct category from STM. And HBIP revenues were 45% of total $HIIQ revs vs STM at 25%.

7/

Given the implication that HBIP was a bigger growth driver in '18 than STM and HBIP is much larger than STM, the non-STM prospects appear pretty good for $HIIQ well surpassing their 2019 revenue growth guidance. This simply assumes that HBIP/Other grow at all!

8/

So if this analysis is in the ballpark ("Yeah, Yeah, Wrigley Fuckin Field" - Corrado "Junior" Soprano, h/t @TheSopranosQ), and $HIIQ handily beats guidance, what the hell do the shorts, with ~70% S/I (!), do here?

9/

Given my belief that many $HIIQ shorts dont understand the story well (if at all) or why theyre even short, what happens when those shorts simultaneously head for the exits on beats this year?
I have a pretty good idea. @AureliusValue @AlderLaneeggs @MotherCabriniNY @hal_jam 10/

I'm sure we've all seen epic short squeezes before, but just wait for $HIIQ this year!!
Shorts will feel some serious pain here soon.
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