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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
That's a big price gap.

(Ericsson v Huawei)
From an interesting Wapo story by Ellen Nakashima

washingtonpost.com/world/national…
Huawei obviously has gotten a tremendous about of support indirectly, as China Exim and CDB finance its customers so long as they buy Huawei's gear
And in the "what might have been done differently" file, well, the Europeans didn't pursue any remedy in their 2010 dumping case v Huawei.

"“It was clear that Huawei was dumping,” recalled De Gucht, “We had ample proof."
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More from @Brad_Setser see all

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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
To state the obvious, Mexico is not China.

The shift in auto production for the North American market to the south is real. But Mexico runs an overall trade deficit, and, well, it needs to export autos to pay for all the refined product (gas) it imports from the U.S.

(1/x)
After the global crisis -- and after the oil price shock of 14 -- the Mexican peso has been weak. But Mexico doesn't intervene to keep it weak. It is the natural result of market forces -- and, well, Trump's tariff threats don't help.

(2/x)
And Mexico, unlike China, isn't pursuing an industrial policy implemented through big state banks and big state companies that aims to squeeze American products out of the Mexican market (ok, with the exception of AMLO's desire to refine more crude in Mexico) ...

(3/x)
Read 11 tweets
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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
Very interesting article from @KeithBradsher and @AnaSwanson --

China's US equity holdings have long flown under the radar (as they aren't as visible as its Treasury holdings). And the U.S. has some sources of financial leverage as well ...

nytimes.com/2019/05/28/bus…
Seems like Chinese policy makers have been thinking how they could use their equity book for leverage as well (sources want anonymity of obvious reasons)
for what it is worth, China clearly met a portion of the 15-16 drain on its reserves by selling off a portion of its U.S. equity portfolio.

See the US balance of payments data for China at the time.
Read 3 tweets
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Brad Setser
@Brad_Setser
A big question right now is how does China respond to Trump's decision to raise U.S. tariffs on roughly half of China's trade with US to 25%.

The boring but I suspect correct answer:

In the same sectors that China targeted last fall. They are its best targets.

(1/x)
After the truce last December, China's national team did resume modest soy imports --

But with a strong harvest in Brazil and Argentina coming to the market, it can (and almost certainly will) take those purchases back to zero.
U.S. oil and gas exports to China haven't really picked up, but I would be surprised if they don't go to close to zero as is possible ...

(won't matter much to the oil and gas sector in the US; oil in particular is fungible, and global prices are decent right now)
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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=Orange=
@LynwoodTalks
Are we looking at the latest episode of The X Files...?

(spoiler ~ the answer may be in the last line of the last paragraph)

By Adam Mill via @theamgreatness amgreatness.com/2019/04/03/we-…
Here it is so you don't need to leave to solve the 'riddle':

"The phrase, “we know,” appears 19 times in Colin Powell’s speech to the United Nations in which he leveraged his credibility to convince a coalition of allies to launch a restart of the Gulf War.
“We know that Iraqi government officials . . . have hidden prohibited items in their homes.”

“We know from sources that a missile brigade outside Baghdad was disbursing rocket launchers and warheads containing biological warfare agents.”
Read 75 tweets
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southpaw
@nycsouthpaw
Here's some rank speculation that I need to let out my head in order to go to sleep.
The CNN story on the Mueller report I quoted from: cnn.com/2019/02/20/pol…

And the CNN story explaining how they got the Stone video by watching the courthouse: cnn.com/2019/01/25/pol…

WaPo on the Mueller report: washingtonpost.com/world/national…

And NYT: nytimes.com/2019/02/21/us/…
live by the Main Justice source, die by the Main Justice source...
Read 3 tweets
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covert_extrovert
@ExtrovertCovert
1. #NatalyaVeselnitskaya has been charged by #USAttorneysOffice #SouthernDistrict/#NY for obstruction of justice. This is the #RussianLawyer who hired #FusionGPS in a scam was just charged w/ obstructing justice. She's the one that the #Hussein #DOJ gave a visa to, to set......
2. ......up the #TrumpTower meet with campaign reps. #WaPo isn't reporting on #FusionGPS's work for that lawyer. This charge is about fabrication of evidence.
#WeaponizedMedia #Narratives are busy creating false #Narratives &making no effort to change their #FakeNews......
3. ......agenda.
washingtonpost.com/world/national…
Not to be outdone, @TwitterMoments #Tweets she met in #TT w/"Trump" [ ! ]
As you read through the reports 1 thing becomes crystal clear; #CorporateMedia is furiously working damage control.
#Veselnitskaya's name appearing has......
Read 4 tweets
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The_War_Economy
@The_War_Economy
On May 25, 2017, Amanda Renteria published an article on Medium, which started with the words "Dear Friends".

It detailed a response to The Washington Post's story about the Open Society letter James Comey received in March 2016.

medium.com/@arenteria/dea…
In it, Renteria agrees with the conclusion of the Federal Bureau of Investigation and The Washington Post: "It was simply made up by the Russians".

Pretty convenient.

Also, 17 intelligence agencies.

medium.com/@arenteria/dea…
On July 7, 2017, Renteria published "My Response Letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee" on Medium, although the letter itself is dated June 30, 2017.

medium.com/@arenteria/my-…
Read 10 tweets
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Alamo_on_the_rise
@AlamoOnTheRise
Trump: Day 690
-Sz 'Proud 2 Shut Down Government'
-Stormed Out After Oval Office Mtg
-Manhood Questioned by Rep Pelosi
-Sz Military Will Finish Building Wall
-Denied Time's 'Person of the Year'
-Defends Saudi Crown Prince MbS
-Weakening Fed Clean Water Rules
Add...
Day 795 since Donald Trump admitted to sexual assault — yet he’s still in the Oval Office
Add...
Day 646 of NO EVIDENCE produced by Trump that his phones were tapped by Obama.

The FISA warrant Trump referenced targeted Carter Page. #TrumpLies
Read 81 tweets
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DocRock1007 🇺🇸
@DocRock1007
1. #QAnon Sessions with Huber. In Utah.
What a wonderful day!
@POTUS_alert
#Q
2. (#QAnon's link to above tweet).
…
#Q
3. #QAnon My oh my!
Is it a coincidence that Sessions is meeting Huber the day prior to being subpoenaed to bring Congress the #SpyGate docs, the same day as the "POTUS_ALERT"?
What sealed Grand Jury indictment info must 1st be vetted? judiciary.house.gov/wp-content/upl…📁
#Q
Read 45 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Venezuelan #UNCharter #JaredKushner #NeverForget #Qatar #TrumpLies #FusionGPS #Iran #KremlinAnnex #DarkMoney #Immigration #FollowTheWhiteRabbit #UnConstitutional #SaudArabia #PerkinsCoie #clowns #YellowVests #HisNameWasSethRich #WorldNews #DeepState #NoUSExtradition #WWG1WGAWORLDWIDE #NationalEmergency #RitzCarlton #USVIA
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