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Good morning, happy Monday! We got May manufacturing data & it's uplifting per usual in Asia 🙃(🌧️ in HK too!):
Taiwan, contracting but by less at 48.4📉
Malaysia contracting but worse 48.8📉
Japan just below 50📉
Korea worse 48.2 (contracting)📉
Vietnam expanding but less 😬
Taiwan, contracting but by less at 48.4📉
Malaysia contracting but worse 48.8📉
Japan just below 50📉
Korea worse 48.2 (contracting)📉
Vietnam expanding but less 😬
I smell FEAR 🥶
And of course that means more buyers to risk-free assets (@USTreasury & bund etc) & 10yr now 2.12% & that is 38bps below Fed Fund Upper of 2.5% & the last time we were here was summer of 2006 & 2007 🤢🤮
And of course that means more buyers to risk-free assets (@USTreasury & bund etc) & 10yr now 2.12% & that is 38bps below Fed Fund Upper of 2.5% & the last time we were here was summer of 2006 & 2007 🤢🤮
@USTreasury South Korea May exports (or shall I say lack of shipment -9.4%YoY & yes, that already includes a weaker KRW as it's in USD):
Semiconductor -30.5%🤮
Display -13.4%
Computers -27.2%
Phones -41.3%
Petrochemical -16.2%
Steel -7.6%
Shipping +44.5%👏🏻
Autos +13.6%
General machinery +5%
Semiconductor -30.5%🤮
Display -13.4%
Computers -27.2%
Phones -41.3%
Petrochemical -16.2%
Steel -7.6%
Shipping +44.5%👏🏻
Autos +13.6%
General machinery +5%
@USTreasury Based on the general uplifting vibe of markets/news/commentaries, fixed income is doing this 🕺🏻💃🏻& market expectations of ✂️✂️✂️✂️gave risen massively (you know I wrote that💌 letter on V-day about Asia right & so far has been proven true🤓)
Question: Too bearish or not enough🧐
Question: Too bearish or not enough🧐
@USTreasury Markets paging SOS to JPO (Jerome Powell) to please please please help 🙇🏻♀️🙇🏻♀️🙇🏻♀️🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
And of course if he agrees, would be very helpful b/c the USD lubricates global finance & econ. Thread here 👇🏻
And of course if he agrees, would be very helpful b/c the USD lubricates global finance & econ. Thread here 👇🏻
@USTreasury @Trinhnomics will be on the @BBCBusiness tomorrow at 730am HKT (prolly will be aired per hour in the morning) on this uplifting news from Asia.
Be there for be square. Okay, too early? Fair play 🤗
Be there for be square. Okay, too early? Fair play 🤗
@USTreasury @BBCBusiness RBA decision tomorrow (25bps cut priced in) & if employment is the trigger Lowe needs then:
Job advertisements -8.4% mom according to ANZ 😬
🇦🇺🦘🌏✂️✂️✂️
Job advertisements -8.4% mom according to ANZ 😬
🇦🇺🦘🌏✂️✂️✂️
@USTreasury @BBCBusiness China Caixin May manufacturing PMI improves to 50.2from 50.2 versus 50 expectations.
Look at the divergence b/n state & Caixin 👇🏻👇🏻
Look at the divergence b/n state & Caixin 👇🏻👇🏻
@USTreasury @BBCBusiness Details of Caixin PMI below (has more SMEs vs the state one which has larger ones). Btw, the state PMI was the second lowest of 49.4 (lowest was Feb 2016 of 49.0). The divergence b/n state PMI & Caixin is interesting & not new. Caixin more volatile than state (chart 👆🏻)
@USTreasury @BBCBusiness Let me show you the change of Caixin & %change mom of SHCOMP (shanghai which has lots of banks & industrials) & you can see that the SHCOMP prices in NBS PMI more than Caixin (SHCOMP has large industrials & banks).
Q: Is Caixin a leading indicator of SHCOMP?
Q: Is Caixin a leading indicator of SHCOMP?
