Profile picture
Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/When I express optimism about African manufacturing, people inevitably tell me that industrialization won't work for Africa (or, presumably, for Bangladesh, Vietnam, etc.) because of automation.

I don't buy it.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/First of all, the people who push this thesis (e.g. Joseph Stiglitz) tend to cite the fact that manufacturing in Africa fell as a % of GDP from the late 70s to the early 2000s.

www8.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstigl…
3/But the timing is all wrong. Automation didn't become a big deal until recently. And China did just fine with manufacturing in the 90s and 00s.

So what is Africa's deindustrialization in the 70s-90s reflecting?

Probably just bad policy.

brookings.edu/blog/africa-in…
4/In addition, the official statistics on African industrialization simply miss a lot of manufacturing activity.

Bad data leads to bad conclusions!

ifpri.org/blog/myth-de-i…
5/Third, the people who warn of "premature deindustrialization" don't really present any credible alternative path to development.
6/And fourth, pessimists conflate manufacturing *employment* with manufacturing *output*.

Even if manufacturing doesn't create as many jobs as in past decades, it still generates external multipliers!
7/Therefore, there is no reason for African countries to abandon the traditional, manufacturing-centric approach to industrialization.

Ignore the Joe Stiglitzes, and full speed ahead!

(end)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Noah Smith 🐇
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Noahpinion see all

Profile picture
Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
1/Up next in my "immigration and diversity" reading list is "Second Generation: Ethnic Identity Among Asian Americans", a collection of essays edited by Pyong Gap Min.

amazon.com/Second-Generat…
2/Second-generation Americans (children of immigrants) are very important for the immigration story. But we talk about them much less. This is the first of four or five books I'm going to read on this topic.
3/The essays in this book are almost all ethnographies. The interviews and quotes have lots of interesting tidbits that allow deeper, more nuanced understanding than survey research. The tradeoff, and the danger, is the tendency to conclude that anecdotes are representative.
Read 22 tweets
Profile picture
Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
1/I want to write a thread about this article about the campus "awokening".

I have two thoughts about it, which aren't really connected. But bear with me...

areomagazine.com/2019/04/17/lis…
2/This article is in a right-leaning magazine, but is more charitable to social justice kids than most such articles. It takes them seriously. As do I! And taking them seriously leads to some interesting places.
3/The writer, @darelmass, notes how the social justice kids very often talk about physical harm, physical fear, and physical safety. "We are dying" and "we are not safe" are common refrains, along with the word "violence".
Read 20 tweets
Profile picture
Noah Smith 🐇
@Noahpinion
Today's @bopinion post is for @benshapiro.

It is about science and Western Civilization.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The other day, Shapiro caused a stir by arguing that the ideas of experimental science, and of science-for-science's sake, are unique to the West (by which I assume he means America, Europe, and the Anglosphere).

theblaze.com/news/ben-shapi…
But the idea of experimental science didn't originate in Europe. Most people trace it to an Iraqi physicist working in Egypt in the 900s, named Hasan Ibn al-Haytham.
Read 17 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
It's Going Down
@IGD_News
#Automation will displace millions of jobs, solidify inequality, and transform cities as neoliberalism did the Rustbelt. In response, everyone from the Alt-Right to Silicon Valley is now backing #UBI. But is keeping capitalism afloat really the solution? itsgoingdown.org/against-automa…
Over the last 20 years, 85% of the jobs lost in the US have been due to automation, not outsourcing. Over the next 10 years, many are predicting that 50% of US jobs will be destroyed or impacted due to automation. Many are former positions within the so-called "gig economy."
Many economic and automation experts predict that "boom towns" of today, like Las Vegas, in 10 years could face upwards of 65% of jobs being automated out of existence, becoming "the next Detroit."
Read 26 tweets
Profile picture
Steve Herman
@W7VOA
A gunman has opened fire inside a mosque in New Zealand.
Numerous casualties reported following a shooting inside a mosque in Christchurch, NZ. tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-z…
Much of Christchurch, New Zealand on lockdown following at least one shooting incident.
Read 40 tweets
Profile picture
Jonathan Martin
@theboyonthebike
I can't get over my seasickness over the racist, homophobic attack of @JussieSmollett. Hate crimes like this are not anecdotal or episodic. How can it still even be in question whether or not reckless rhetoric empowers extremists/extreme action? #JusticeForJussie #MAGA
I will contend again: #MAGA is not just a political ideology, but a theology that makes explicit theological claims that must be evaluated theologically. And anybody who studies theology knows this: LANGUAGE MATTERS. Words matter.
Defensive people inevitably tell me that Trumpian rhetoric is not intended to be used this way, that nobody responsible for the rhetoric wants it carried out like this. That may be true! But here's something else you can learn from theology: authorial intent is NOT A THING.
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
Dr. Jennifer Mercieca
@jenmercieca
I'm reading a lot of takes this morning that are using Trump's framing to make sense of the sentencing memos. They may not realize that they're doing it, I'm not sure. (thread)
Trump's propaganda team has been arguing since Cohen plead that "there's nothing to see here." They've used rhetorical strategies of denial (Trump didn't do it) and differentiation (it's not what you think or what they want you to believe) to try to wiggle out of guilt.
Trump's propaganda team has also tried to walk us through the "points of stasis" (points of stopping, or argument) to explain away the indictments, pleas, and memos.

Stases: What happened? How should we understand it? How should we value it? What should we do about it?
Read 28 tweets
Profile picture
🎄🔶🌸❄️Sakura To Yuki No Seirei❄️🌸🦋⚢⚧
@SakuraNoSeirei
So, I've waded through the Evangelical Alliance's new pastoral "guidelines" for interacting with trans people (ughh, the things I do to expose #transphobic #ciswits to the world), and let's just say it's time to tear this particular sh*t-bag a new hole.

1/n
CW: #Transphobia, #ConversionTherapy, #Zucker, #Religiously #driven #zealotry

2/n
So, straight off the bat, first page of text, the use of #language is . . . well, yeah, see for yourself:

"It is important to remember that transgender is not simply an issue to be debated;" - p5, #Transformed

*sigh*

When such language gets reinforced by insisting...

3/n
Read 176 tweets
Profile picture
Black Archaeology
@blackarcheology
How Europe Raped Africa

The Berlin conference of 1884 is where European colonising nations basically carved up Africa. Historians refer to it as “the scramble for Africa”.

#Africa #Europe #WhiteSupremacy
The countries represented at the time included Austria-Hungary, Belgium, Denmark, #France, #Germany, Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, #Russia, #Spain, Sweden-Norway (unified from 1814-1905), #Turkey, and the United States of #America.
The Conference of 1884–85, also known as the Congo Conference, regulated European colonization and trade in #Africa during the New Imperialism period and coincided with Germany's sudden emergence as an imperial power.
Read 34 tweets

Trending hashtags

#BoatPeople #USArmy #IndoPacific #UNCharter #Germany #Myanmar #opendara #TrumpRegime #IMF #VoteSRWP #Bangladeshi #Bolton #opendsta #16Mar #FrequentWind #ASEAN #PanAfricanism #7M #semiconductors #TEDTalks #WTO #Caracas #Bayer #Maduro #Automation
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!