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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
, 25 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
RECAP monthly MT GLOBAL M.PMI surveys May2019 thread 1/n

• Global Business Confidence keep melting
• a few positive outliers are overshadowed by a growing number of countries falling below 50
• FED went too far, the world needs lower US rates and much lower US$
• Bonds, JPY
2/n Global M.PMI Breadth ... BOOM - PEAK - FADE.
3/n World Global M.PMI

• JPM Index 49.8 78M L
• MT Index 50.0 36M L
• DM 49.9 78M L
• EM 50.3 4M L

Boom - Peak - Fade
4/n Global big 4 regions M.PMI

• US 50.5 118M L "knock knock FOMC"
• EZ 47.7 "kaputt"
• China 50.2 "fake"
• Japan 49.8 "QQE ?"
5/n 5Y pctl vs BDI

Boom - Peak - Fade
6/n Global demand for Energies and Industrial Metals vs Global Business confidence...

...
7/n CL and NG vs Global Business Confidence ...
8/n HG and PA vs Global Business Confidence
9/n DM Business Confidence vs $ACWI and EM Biz confidence vs $EEM
10/n US ISM Biz confidence vs $SPX and US10Y
11/n US ISM Biz confidence and $SPX vs Credit Risk gauge
12/n US ISM Biz confidence and SPX vs implied vola $VIX
13/n EUROPE M.PMI Business confidence big 4

• Germany 44.3 kaputt
• France 50.6 3M H pfff
• Italy 49.7 5M H
• Spain 50.1 (welcome to the club)
14/n Europe Biz confidence vs STOXX and vs $EUR
15/n Europe Biz confidence and STOXX vs Credit Risk gauge ... ho ho ho
16/n Europe Biz confidence and STOXX vs implied vola VSTOXX (smh)
17/n Germany biz confidence vs $DAX and France vs $CAC
18/n Italy biz confidence vs $MOB and Spain vs $IBEX
19/n UK biz confidence vs $FTSE and vs $GBP
20/n Global M.PMI biz confidence vs Y/Y momentum in relation to world GDP contribution

global recession drifters
21/n Global M.PMI 5Y PCTL ranked DM vs EM
22/n Global Macro vs Technicals ... the perfect storm
23/n ...oops

24/end that's all folks...

as always, "read between the lines and connect some dots"
25/end of end @threadreaderapp unroll
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
good evening.back in London.
In Germany I walked by a Postbank branch with a "Wohnatlas" (Real Estate map)... which made me do this tweet.

charts:
1) current avg EUR/sqm from green (low) to red
2) expected yields red (negative) to green
3) Unemployment rates
4) EU elections
here the poster of the Real Estate Map “Wohnatlas” in the window of the Postbank branch
pretty obvious correlation between high unemployment, AfD voters, lowest real estate prices and negative expected price growth rates.
Read 3 tweets
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
ZEW SURVEY CONFIDENCE COLLAPSED chart thread 1/8

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#GlobalSlowDown continues
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Read 9 tweets
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Kai
@MacroTechnicals
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly recap wk24 as of 14Jun19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

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2/n update Global Markets performance YTD as of wk24
3/n update Global Markets Overview ROC wk/mth/YTD/YoY as of wk24
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