Thread by @RedTeamScouting

A little over two weeks until the NBA Draft. In today's mega thread, we are discussing Nassir Little

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UNC’s freshman forward came into Chapel Hill surround by hype, but his season didn’t turn any heads. Can NBA teams look past the weak college resume and find a diamond in the rough?

Note: After scouting Little extensively, we believe he is among the players with the highest variance of outcomes in this draft class. So much of what he has done within the UNC system has masked his skill set catered toward the NBA game.

As a result, much of the role analysis is high speculative and based on a smaller sample size of NBA-relevant skills than we usually like to see.

Offense-

Little’s fit in UNC’s cross screening offense was a bit haphazard. In high school, he found success as a freelance ball handler with who was given the green light to probe defenses and attack off the bounce.

He understands how to find space by diving or popping and can even attack warped defenses off the bounce. He will need to add some shooting to his tool kit, even just a mid-range jumper, otherwise defenses will be able to sag, devaluing all the rest of his offensive skills.

He has a strong body and wide hips and shoulders, all of which could lend itself to becoming an accomplished roll man. He has great bounce, especially on the move and can finish through contact.

But he isn’t great at taking what defense give him. He can be trigger happy when operating on the ball and tends to get blinders on as he attack the basket. Finding a balance between scoring and creating will be a must.

Which leads to the the sphinx’s riddle about Little: What position does he play on offense? Teams have to decide where he will fit and how to develop him before they can lock onto him as a draft target.

Defense-

One of the more interesting small subplots regarding Little is the change in his body type. In high school he was skinny and lanky, but by the time he reached the court at UNC he had added some muscle.

The added weight has reduced his lateral quickness, though the bulk has helped him deal with more NCAA-centric threats in the low post. Little is at the proverbial diverging paths in the woods:

Is he more of the long and lanky type with the quickness to switch with guards, wings and forwards, or is he better served with the weight and the ability to contend with larger players?

For our money, we would elect to take the former path and have Little drop a few pounds and prepare to defend smaller players. If he can lock horns with larger guards and wings and not present any targetable weakness, he will certainly become an asset wherever he lands.

There is a decent track record of college 4s who become NBA threes, but much of that comes from utility on the defensive end. If Little can slim down and learn to be a high quality point of attack defender, he could be a steal.

Getting Minutes-
Little is a banger who can mix it up, even in the most physical environments. He is a quality on-ball defender who can switch among several positions and hold his own.

Those two things will get him onto the floor, but he will need to develop an appreciable offensive skill to stay there.

The team who drafts Little will also have to decide where they want to deploy him. Even though he is stout, he stands only 6’6” and hasn't shown much proclivity for protecting the rim.

While the tweener position has risen in popularity over the last ten seasons, most who catch on have a single skill which makes them valuable. Little hasn't found that skill yet.

Riding the Pine-

Without being able to point to a single outstanding skill, Little may have trouble finding minutes. He will be able to defend, even in the spacious NBA game, but on offense what does he do?

He shot a paltry 26.9 percent from three and has been a bit turnover prone in his short stretches handling the ball in freelance situations. Putting the ball in his hands for any length of time severely limits the impact others have; he is not even an average passer on the move.

Keeping him on the move and allowing him to use his nice array of one- and two-dribble moves while attacking in transition or early in the shot clock before defenses can get set might be a way to conceal his lack of an offensive identity for a while.

Over the course of a few days in the end of January and the beginning of February, we got to see the entire Nassir Little gamut on display.

First, he dazzled potential front offices with 23 points and six rebounds against Virginia Tech where he stayed engaged the entire time, worked on defense and put his stamp all over both ends of the floor.

However, just a few scant days, later he seemed lost during a 4-point outing against Louisville where he could never find a rhythm and often got swept up in the action. He will have to prove the duds are the exception and not the rule.

Good Fits-

Because of the limited sample and the difficulty projecting a player who is as miscast as we believe Little is, his projections are all over the map.

Teams will have to make their own decisions based on what they have seen, which opens the doors for some ill-fitting pairings for the developing forward.

Little usually ends up in the 10-20 range of mock drafts, usually settling around pick 15. A few teams in that range could use the talent boost, but would need to be careful about how to deploy Little as he develops.

Miami (#13) is locked in salary cap hell for the foreseeable future and would likely be willing to take a big swing to get an influx of high-lottery caliber talent. Detroit (#15), might feel the same way.

Brooklyn (#17), who has done a remarkable job building a playoff roster while be handcuffed to one of the worst deals of the decade, may likewise see Little as high upside gamble.