Thread by @RedTeamScouting

Today's mega thread breakdown is one of draft Twitter's favorite prospects, Talen Horton-Tucker

(thread)

Horton-Tucker of Iowa State is an intriguing prospect due to his unique distribution of strengths. He turns 19 in November and has an NBA-ready frame with a 7’1 wingspan. He is a switching defense’s dream, but can he produce enough offense to stay afloat?

Offense-
Much of THT’s resume rests on his frame and defense, but he does have some offensive skills which can be polished to make him a weapon: he is a smart passer and he has the ability to create space using his length.

Though he didn’t operate as ISU’s primary initiator (Weiler-Babb did most of the heavy lifting), he showed a penchant for finding open teammates. He isn’t afraid of making difficult passes and can even find spot up shooters and cutters while on the move.

The initial hurdle to clear to unlock his passing at an NBA level will be tightening his ball handling. He isn’t quite able to get where he wants to go and he needs top be able to warp defenses on the bounce to get full use out of his distributive powers.

With his physical tools, he is able to create space in a myriad of ways. On drives, he can wrong-foot defenders by jumping a halfstep early and stretching toward the basket. He is also adept at a more bruising style, bumping shoulders with guard defenders and elevating over them.

But his shot selection is notoriously poor. Too often he settles for contested midrange jumpers without trying to apply pressure on the D. He also forces up wild looks around the rim. With a decreased usage rate at the NBA level, he will need to be more judicious & efficient.

In Tucker’s single season at ISU, he was a poor three point shooter (30.8 percent on 4.5 attempts per game) and his free throw shooting (62.5 percent) didn’t show a clear path to becoming an above average long distance specialist.

He also has a very low jump shot release for a player with a 7+FT wingspan. When spotting up, smaller players are able to contest effectively. Lifting his release point (and generally getting into his mechanics quicker) will help alleviate the issue.

Defense-
As a point of attack defender, Horton-Tucker has good instincts. He shades his hips and feet well and leverages his length to pressure smaller defenders.

He does tend to guard a little too upright, though, which leaves him susceptible to being blown away by quicker guards.

Much has been made about his frame allowing him to be a switchable defender. This may be true, however, he guarded very few bigs on switches while in college.
He was efficient in contested and showed real promise regarding his translatablilty, but the sample size is small.

He will likely need time learn to contest and use his strong lower body to anchor himself against lengthier foes.

His off ball instincts need work, which is by no means an indictment of his play. Most freshmen tend to come into the league as ball watchers.

He does have good instincts for assessing when help is required but can overhelp from time to time, leaving his man unguarded.

Getting Minutes-
A lot of the hype is built around theoretical upside. He has the frame to defend bigger on switches, he's young and malleable so teams can work him into the lineup as what they need, & he can play many roles on O, from 2ndary initiator, spotup shooter, screener

If he can come into the season ready to defend NBA forwards while playing a two-guard position, he will find plenty of regular season playing time for a switch-happy team.

He also has an entire summer and training camp to improve his shooting form and percentages (a top priority for a player who projects in a lower usage role). He always has the on-ball skills in his pocket but focusing on shooting will be a big boon.

Riding the Pine-
When rookies come into the league, they can be timid with the ball. THT might have the opposite problem. He is confident with the ball, sometimes to a fault.

If he gets overzealous and takes bad shots outside of the flow of the offense, he may find his early playing time limited.

The debate about whether or not he can become a good shooter will continue well into his first contract and may even become the central focus of his career. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but his percentages leave much to be desired.

On defense, he will need to use his length well to contain against quicker guards and will need to show his switching ability to be more than theoretical. He has all the tools, but if unlocking his tweener skill set takes time, he may lose minutes.

Good Fits-
Because his offensive contribution is uncertain, finding a great and immediate fit is a difficult proposition. He is riskier than other prospects in his range, though the risk may payoff in a big way in the space-and-pace league.

He is usually checking in between 13 and 22 on most mock drafts, giving him a wide range of teams.

A team like Indiana (#18) might look to pair him with Victor Oladipo (and perhaps second year PG Aaron Holiday) to protect the all star defensively. But legitimate spacing concerns could crop up should Bogdanovic depart.

A team with multiple firsts (Boston [14, 20, 22], San Antonio [19, 29]) may look to take a shot on high upside and bring his offensive game along slowly.