Thread by @RedTeamScouting

Sunday Morning Thread! The 2019 NBA Draft is 17 days away. This morning we are covering Tennessee forward/big Grant Williams.

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Williams, the two-time SEC Player of the Year, made a strong case for a lottery selection during his junior season. Will teams be enthralled by his on court intelligence or will his physical profile be too much for lottery teams to ignore?

Offense-

While primarily a post threat at the college level, expect Williams’ shot distribution to undergo a similar transformation as did Kevin Love’s from college to the pros (to be clear, I’m only comparing the shot distribution here).

This means shifting his domain from the block more to the elbow, and gradually out to the wing. In time, the post-up will be merely a situational weapon, a way to attack switches or expose a small-ball lineup.

His post skills will be applicable in other areas, as he often makes use of these skills by turning drives into pseudo post-ups or when he has a pivot foot at the elbow or on the wing.

He’s a strong big-to-big and weak-side passer from the block or the elbow, and has the agility to get into the scoring motion quickly from back-to-the-basket situations. He has flashed some impressive ability as a PnR screener despite it being an infrequent action in UT’s O.

His most effective role at the next level will be in the pick and roll. While his jump shot may take a few years to become consistent from 3-point range, there are no significant form issues likely to hold him back.

Once this is a weapon he will be an effective dual threat either popping into open space or operating as a short-roll facilitator. This ability to play through him as a roll man will help produce good team offense through this simple action.

While his issues finishing against length may prevent him from threatening the defense with hard rolls to the rim, he would excel as a 4-on-3 ball-handler if paired with a guard capable of drawing two defenders on the perimeter.

When not involved in ball screen actions, he will spend most of his time spacing the floor. An average to above-average shooting threat, his ability to attack closeouts and swing the ball decisively will allow him to select high quality spot-up looks rather than forcing up looks

Defense-

Williams lacks the lateral quickness to defend NBA 3s or the height and length to defend NBA 5s, at least on a full time basis.

While he can hold his own on a switch, his primary position needs to be the 4 in order to be effective. Placed in the proper role, however, he can make a significant impact at the team level.

His off-ball defense, particularly in one-pass-away situations, will make it very difficult for his man to get the ball in an advantageous position.

Moreover, the trend of floor spacing 4s plays into his strengths, placing him away from the primary action where he can both check his man and make an impact with crisp help rotations.

More dynamic playmaking 4s may prove tougher for Williams to handle, though his generally good technique and effective communication should make it workable on a team defense level.

As long as he’s not on an island with more dynamic players he will be effective, though there will likely be some lowlights when teams force an early switch with a high pick-and-roll.

Getting Minutes-

Williams will get on the court as a rookie because of his smart ball movement, good decision making, solid defense and strong motor. He’s willing to do all of the little things that coaches love and that contribute to team success.

He’s capable of scoring on-ball but more than willing to accept a lower usage role where the focus is on elevating teammates; that makes him an easy fit into most offenses. Defensively his awareness and motor will enable him to make an impact.

Moreover, he will be a quick study of team defensive schemes and of opposing player tendencies. All-in-all, consistent rotation minutes are likely in the cards, perhaps in the 20-25 minutes-per-game range.

Riding the Pine-

Three things could hold Williams back initially. First, while his jump shot is projectable, it isn’t a weapon today. The need for floor spacing may find him riding the pine in favor of a stretchier player.

Second, his limited positionality means he will appear on the depth chart at only one spot. If he’s drafted to a team with entrenched veterans ahead of him, it may be difficult to carve out a role.

Third, his issues with change of direction at the point of attack may prove to be a problem that coaches choose not to scheme around early on, limiting his playing time rather than working around the issue.

Good Fits-
Our own analysis isn’t quite in line with other evaluations, but nonetheless Williams has quietly risen up boards. He is currently being projected at the back end of the lottery (though many of the lottery teams would be wise to give the heady 21-year-old a chance).

The Atlanta Hawks (#8, #10) are a team who places emphasis on moving the ball to create advantage situations and Williams could be a tremendous secondary facilitator, especially if they can address wing depth issues with the other pick.

He also is a natural fit with the (formerly) ball-movement-happy Boston Celtics (#14) under Brad Stevens and may even find minutes early with the departure of veteran forward Marcus Morris.