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First, it is worth noting that in a poll of 50 states you expect two or three extreme outliers, but second, I think this line of argument misconstrued Trump's 2016 coalition. It's a coalition of whites without college degrees, some whites with college degrees/nonwhites 1/
And then suburbanites who voted R in 2016 because (a) they always did (b) they didn't like Clinton and/or (c) asked themselves "how bad could it be". Slippage among that third group shows up everywhere, including in Des Moines suburbs. 2/
Finally, to the extent 2016 was and/or 2020 will be about marginal whites without college degrees showing up to vote in surprising numbers, that won't show up in an RV poll 3/
In the big picture, I don't think Rs and to an extent even Ds fully appreciate the existential threat suburban decline poses to the Republican Party. There are VERY few red states that can't flip because of it. 4/
The best thing Rs have going for them is the possibility that in the next few cycles Democrats nominate someone like Sanders or perhaps Warren who makes these suburbanites nervous enough on economic issues to offset the damage Trump is doing. 5/5
