Thread by @alanbeattie

In wake of Trump in UK, my Free Trade newsletter today is on global regulation & the fanciful Brexiter notion that WTO rules mean Britain can trade seamlessly with the EU even if it leaves the Single Market. Thread (WARNING CONTAINS CHLORINE CHICKEN): 1/n ft.com/content/b40528…

The argument is that product rules are increasingly set globally and that WTO law, specifically on technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary/phytosanitary standards (SPS), constrains governments from setting eg food regs not based on scientific evidence. 2/n

Thus the IEA report on UK trade post Brexit (they took it down after the Charity Commission said they breached charitable standards, but it’s here f.hypotheses.org/wp-content/blo…) says UK can litigate against EU to get its regs recognised, thus reducing need for border inspections. 3/n

Thing is, the WTO doesn’t have enforcement powers like the ECJ. If a member really really doesn’t want to implement a ruling, it can’t make them. It can only authorise retaliation. Or often the losing party will give some concession elsewhere. 4/n

So when the EU lost a WTO case to the US over its ban on growth hormone in beef, having ignored the advice of the global rules body Codex Alimentarius, Brussels created a bigger import quota for non-hormone beef to compensate. wto.org/english/tratop… 5/n

Similarly, the US actually started a case against the EU over chemical-washed chicken but then abandoned it, realising they weren’t going to get anywhere. wto.org/english/tratop… 6/n

Does the EU ever comply? Well, plucky Peru litigated Brussels into submission on the question of what technically qualifies as a sardine for food classification purposes. wto.org/english/tratop… 7/n

In the riots after the controversial sardine verdict, over 200 Greek fishing villages were destroyed & Paddington Bear was burned in effigy in front of the Portuguese parliament.*

*Not really. Unlike chemical chicken, it wasn’t that big a deal. Which is why the EU complied. 8/n

So if the UK authorises chemical-washed chicken and sues the EU at the WTO, at most it will get some trade concession elsewhere. Divergent regulations will not be recognised. Border inspections will be put in. Sorry, folks. This isn’t a solution. 9/9