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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Thinking tomorrow's papers are not going to show an improvement in Conservative leadership candidates thinking on the real issues of Brexit
Pity the poor civil servants who have to think about the Day 1 brief for the new PM - "if we can just draw your attention to the practical implementation of the commitments made..."
Not predominantly Brexit related but implausible to abolish / easily replace a tax yielding over £100bn a year
Meanwhile back on the politics - remember the harder the Brexit line from the new leader, the more Conservative MPs there will be opposing them, with little to lose given threats of deselection. And the EU can count MPs
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
So the Brexiteer dream FTA with the EU:

1/ Will not maintain frictionless trade
2/ Does not therefore solve the Ireland border issue
3/ Is not therefore currently on offer to the whole UK
4/ Would take years to negotiate (5-10?)
5/ Will require UK to follow EU rules
6/ Has forecast economic loss greater than all new trade deals
7/ May not mean totally tariff-free trade
8/ Will be much more restrictive on services than now
9/ May not protect UK business interests (in that these are not yet defined)
10/ Could clash with US FTA provisions
11/ Will not be easier to negotiate than the Withdrawal Agreement
12/ Could mean continued payments for some access
13/ May mean the UK signing up to a Multilateral Investment Court
14/ Would still require other agreements on e.g. aviation, data
15/ Will constrain UK policy space
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Blaming trade for the world's ills, this is typical of the new left-wing case for national protectionism on the almost entirely unconvincing grounds that it was trade deals that led to the populist backlash. There's a case for a new model of trade liberalisation, this isn't it 1/
All the fault of the creation of the WTO apparently? There's implications here that we shouldn't trade in services, that agriculture trade is now fully liberalised, that there shouldn't be international rules to trade. Sorry, but don't find this credible 2/
We should never have let China into the world trade system? What about the increased global prosperity as a result of that happening, which cannot be denied? Distribution is an issue, and I don't at all dispute the last sentence, but is that just down to trade?
Read 10 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
No great surprise that Boris Johnson has no better an idea than anyone else how to solve the Brexit conundrum - after all he was part of the Government who got us into the mess in the first place - threatening not to pay is not going to work, 2nd order issue in Brussels 1/
Shred the backstop? Not going to be acceptable on the EU side as they've made clear many times before. Prepare for no deal in the hope that shifts the dial? You still don't have the Parliamentary majority for no deal, and the EU knows it 2/
Very popular among candidates is send Ministers rather than officials, which is a slogan not a realistic stance, officials negotiate under ministerial direction, always the case. "personal direction" from PM - repeating the PM's error of not having a chief negotiator 3/
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Is there middle path through the #Brexit impasse? It doesn't feel like it, but after a few days in Brussels I've sketched one out - before you burst out laughing, bear with me 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
So as things stand, the positions are clear. @MichelBarnier says the Withdrawal Agreement is the "only option" and the EU member states concur.

nybooks.com/daily/2019/05/…

Am told at EUCO dinner this week this was repeated: "not a dot or comma will change", per UK source. /2
@MichelBarnier And given that even softer Tory leadership candidates like @Jeremy_Hunt says that the Withdrawal Agreement must be renegotiated, it would seem that any new PM is on a collision course with the EU. /3
Read 22 tweets
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Brigid Fowler
@Brigid_Fowler
Just tuning belatedly into Ivan Rogers up at @LordsEUCom & hear, re: trade negs, "secrecy doesn't work ... [&] ... has been a serious mistake in the current process". &, "What is UK trade policy?" - debate re: tariffs "needs to be had in both Houses" #Brexit @DavidHenigUK
Ivan Rogers tells @LordsEUCom that chief negotiator for next round of negs w/ EU should be in No10/Cabinet Office. Shouldn't be DExEU. Bases view on Q of trust: chief negotiator has to be trusted across Whitehall, by all depts, & not seen as having dept'mental skin in the game
& now Ivan Rogers saying that knowledge of the EU in Whitehall became a "rarified art". But Brexit now forcing domestic civil servants to engage with EU more than they ever did before referendum.
Read 4 tweets
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🇬🇧UKPatriotAlliance🇬🇧 #QArmy
@PatriotArmyUK
1/ The UK government should be held in contempt of high Treason. Today's establishment is comprised of many powerful entities that are protecting their own vested interests within our "democracy".
This Establishment uses these groups such as the two party system to manage
2/ democracy to their will so nothing can hinder their overall agendas and profit margins.

They Protect their agenda in many ways but this is the basics of it. This is basically what is happening now with May and her absolutely shocking deal for this country but most likely
3/ a wonderful deal for ((them)). #BREXIT #NoDeal

Politicians make the laws, the legislation and all of the other nuts and bolts of politics that restrain/control us but enrich and free themselves. They are told what to implement and what to discard. They are very wealthy
Read 40 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. Liam Fox is trending - which is never going to be for the right reasons, but the outpouring of cynicism and negativity is not especially useful either. It follows a blistering and inaccurate assault on @tradegovuk by the CBI which is based on gossip and rumour.
#Brexit
2. The source of the scorn comes from this particular article, which is more speculation than actual fact. CBI is right to be concerned - and the lack of information isn't helping but @tradegovuk has its hands tied for the moment.

3. A lot of trade policy will depend on what the EU relationship looks like and until firm decisions are made, all we can really do is prepare for the various eventualities. The problem is not with Fox's department, or Fox especially, rather it is a lack of political leadership.
Read 25 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
#Brexit as a concept is increasingly drifting from having anything whatsoever to do with the mechanics of leaving the EU. It is now primarily a culture war and both sides will totally ignore the details except for when they are temporarily convenient.
The consequence of this is that our future relationship with the EU will be just as readily ignored as our activities as a member. They said Brexit would make us isolated, self absorbed and insular but it seems that was always the case and there are no signs of that changing.
As ever the details will be delegated to officials and civil servants while our establishment politics drifts further into its cycle of decline, unable to usefully influence external events making us entirely passive and reactive to events rather than self-interestedly engaged.
Read 17 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #BBCqt #Farage #peoplesvote #CambridgeAnalytica #leavemeansleave #IrelandsFuture #EU #PeoplesVote #NoDeal #brexit #11a #9a #Lexit #EUCO #Leave #4b #BREXIT #Unroll #EUelections2019 #3b #9b #lexiternow #Milne #brextasy
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