Thread by @Usherwood

Why the incentives in the CON leadership election don't point to any easy resolution of Brexit

1/

The key in this is that candidates have to consider three different audiences, at three different time points

2/

First up, they have to win the support their fellow MPs

That requires showing resolution and determination (since that was apparently May's weakness), plus a commitment to "making it happen"

3/

Second, they have to win the support of the party membership

Here it's about being a hard Brexiteer and giving no ground to EU, because that's where members mostly sit

4/

Only after those hurdles does the new leader actually interact with the EU itself

At which point all the selection biases make it harder to find common ground

5/

As endlessly noted by others, the EU is looked for reliability, not a man with a plan: the key task of the new PM will be whether they have a solid majority to effect any decision

The leadership contest does not necessarily provide that

6/

All of which suggests a heightened chance of no-deal and then a decision for the PM/Parliament about whether they are really comfortable doing that

The latter pretty certainty isn't; the former? We'll have to see

7/

In a way, a more useful way to do this would be one of those fables, where the king sets the suitors a task in order to win the hand of the princess: results before reward

Not really practical, but possibly no more bizarre than this stage of the Brexit saga

8/

In sum, the best chance for this to unblock the impasse would be for the winner to have had the EU stage in mind from the start

But that is precisely the strategy that would count against them

/end

An extension of this: maybe you're cunning and have got a properly realistic plan for the EU side of things, but you hide it away

When you do use it, you find your internal position collapses (which was what the EU is actually worried about)