Thread by @jonworth

Pretty much all the 'analysis' of the Tory leadership election and how it relates to #Brexit is wrong.

This is actually not all a waste of time.

Politics takes the path of least resistance.

Vote a deal, go for No Deal, rescind, call a General Election or hold a 2nd referendum are all *hard*.

Get rid of the leader is the easiest. Like a struggling ⚽️ team sacking its manager.

Why then does anyone take anything any candidate says remotely seriously?

These Tories were not serious when the UK faced a real crisis in March/April.

Why would that *improve* when appealing to 160k predominantly elderly, white, male members who are 3/4 pro-Brexit? It won't.

The only question that matters is what do these 10 in the running really think the Conservative Party is, and what is it for?

Is it the Conservative Party?
Or should it become the Brexit Party?

If it is to be the Conservative Party still, the question then is: how can any Brexit deal actually pass the Commons? May failed, why would anyone else succeed?

Importantly the candidates backing this line do not want a General Election because they know the Tories would tank.

If it is to become the Brexit Party - basically copying Farage's lines on out, and out as hard as possible, and out now - the Q is whether the candidate would risk a General Election?

Johnson, McVey or Raab might think that with a hard line they can win back Farage's backers.

The basic Commons arithmetic does not change w/o a General Election - and that is that the Tories+DUP have only 323 seats in the Commons. Everyone else (once Speaker and Sinn Féin removed) have 319.

Just 3 Tories have to cross the floor... then no majority any more.

That's the essence of it.

Is there any Brexit variant that can unify the 323 on the Govt benches? No. Can any new leader do it? No.

Can any new leader make a decent appeal to Labour? Those that could - Stewart? Hancock? - are never going to win.

And also until the composition of the Commons changes we know there is a majority against a No Deal Brexit, and as Bercow has stated, the Commons is not going to roll over and let No Deal happen.

So watch it all. Have a chuckle. Think of it like some ugly version of Celebrity Love Island.

But definitely do not take it too seriously, and whoever wins is going to come up against the hard wall of reality in late July. Until then it's all really just noise.

/Ends