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Nicole Sykes
@NicoleSykes_
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Folks understand the £39bn doesn’t just appear in our bank account if we leave without a deal?
That it covers ~£4bn pensions and sickness insurance liabilities we’d be billed for every year from 2022 for decades?
And ~£20bn is for payments spread over 6 years up to 2026...
Plus it includes our net budget contributions for 2019-2020. Which, if we’re still in the EU up to October 31st, is almost half of the remaining ~£15bn.

So if you refused to pay, maybe you have an unexpected ~£10bn to play with next year. Then £3bn and change each year to 2026.
For context, the Head of HMRC estimates JUST the cost of additional customs declarations will be £20bn a year to industry.
Oh and obviously you probably don’t have that full imaginary £10bn in 2020 because UKGov has underwritten EU payments for Horizon2020, farmers, local authorities, NGOs...
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More from @NicoleSykes_ see all

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Nicole Sykes
@NicoleSykes_
So you may have seen @CBItweets out today banging our well-weathered drum on no deal. And (having spent a proportion of my week going through 1678 bits of feedback from members on Brexit since the extension of Article 50 in April) here’s why (1/11)
The gap between the intrigue of politics and the reality in our economy is gaping. This is the kind of thing we hear from members every single day at @cbitweets (2/11)
So let’s remember what the threat of no deal is doing.
Impact 1. Investment – time and again, the story is capital expenditure on hold, little bits of productivity enhancing spend on IT happening. But a £5m expansion delayed here, a new UK factory build regretted there (3/11)
Read 11 tweets
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Nicole Sykes
@NicoleSykes_
We're 25 days from exit day, there's no sign of a plan that will deliver a deal, and businesses... not super happy.

The @CBItweets Brexit and @CBI_Economics teams were in Edinburgh, Newcastle, Nottingham and Leeds last week talking to companies and... some observations (1/x)
1⃣ There's no sign of contingency plans abating or slowing down, even if Article 50 is extended.
We hear of stockpiling all over the place. £8million spent by one firm on parts of heavy machinery, companies in construction, retail, even housing associations (2/x)
Not just stockpiling though. Logistics firms adjusting to ensure duties can be paid more easily by clients, tech and professional services firms doing what they can to advise clients, reserving cash etc.
Lots of money being spent in, ultimately, not super productive ways (3/x)
Read 8 tweets
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Nicole Sykes
@NicoleSykes_
Ok. I want to talk about stockpiling because it's a really good example of why, every day politicians dither, our economy is bleeding more and more money.
Stockpiling isn't the most common Brexit contingency action, but it's up there and it's caught the public's imagination (1/9)
The @CBI_Economics team have started to see the level of stockpiling become is so high it's coming through in surveys, not just anecdote.
Stocks of raw materials have been growing for the past 6 months, while stocks of work in progress goods and finished goods are flat (2/9)
If you dig into the figures, ofc there are firms with high stocks for non-Brexit reasons. Plant sellers where Feb-May is peak season, firms that order from China in advance of Chinese New Year to guarantee delivery, bumper grape harvests, taking advantage of shutdown deals (3/9)
Read 9 tweets

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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
The Brexit Party doesn't have a "big vision". They can't see beyond the end of their noses. They want #Brexit purely for its own sake and have zero idea what comes next, much less what is achievable if we leave without a deal.
If there ever was to be a big vision for #Brexit it would have to be rooted in the realities of modern trade taking into account the limitations of our predicament. Instead we get bloviation and bluster from people who've made a virtue of not knowing anything. Purest snake oil.
If Britain wants to be an independent country then it has to start acting like one. That means taking the issues seriously. The slogans might well please a kiptard audience but at some point all these pipedreams will be tested by reality. That's when Britain faces humiliation.
Read 5 tweets
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Sir Edward Leigh MP
@EdwardLeighMP
I am disappointed by the lack of radical ideas coming out of this leadership race. Here’s my programme for the new government:
There are only two choices given the EU won’t change the deal and there’s no chance of Parliament passing it. One is cancel Brexit: an intolerable denial of democracy. The other is leave without a deal on WTO terms on 31 October. But MPs, assisted by the Speaker, will block this.
Solution: End this failed session immediately within hours of a new government and prorogue Parliament. Leave the EU on 31 October. If we don’t, we are betraying our supporters and ensuring a total wipe-out of the Conservative party.
Read 13 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
Lots of chat already today about the extension of the Article 50 period. Let me add to that, by trying to set out what is at stake. Thread. 1/
As things stand, the extension, subject to a review later this month, ends on October 31. The UK leaves with or without the WA on that date, unless it chooses to revoke A50 before that. 2/
In relation to the June review, I can't better this from @FabianZuleeg. 3/
Read 23 tweets
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BrexitPimpernel #FBPE #Révocateur 🇪🇺 🇫🇷♿️✊
@BrexitPimpernel
The UK parliament looks to have lost its moral backbone.
Power is clung on to like a precious ring, and at any cost.
Bungs are pocketed, impropriety is rife even corruption passes unnoted.
How did it come to this?
bellacaledonia.org.uk/2017/11/05/wha…
We are a Nation that has been consciously divided.
#Leave <Divide and conquer> #Remain
While elites polarize opinion alonge tribal lines they can guarantee support despite misdemeanors that would not pass the scrutiny of a united populace or parliament.
Whatever the final result come 29/03/2019 the division will remain and will be used for political/personal/financial advantage for years to come.
Sadly I don't see how the country will ever be whole again any time in the near future and beyond.
Here is why....
Read 9 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Right. Amendment-apocalypse has begun.
Bercow selects amendments from Corbyn, Blackford, Grieve, Cooper, Reeves, Spelman and Bradey.
It's on.
Read 235 tweets
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Brian Rahmer
@brianrahmer
We are dying younger, in part, because of deliberate policy choices made over decades:
• Rejecting universal health care.
• Cutting taxes for the rich.
• Shunning income support.
• Abandoning universal child care.

Those choices increasingly set us apart in the world. #SDoH
“...any man’s death diminishes me,
because I am involved in mankind.
And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.”
#SDoH #Interdependence #PEoH theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/us-l…
“We are the wealthiest nation on earth, but far from the healthiest, and things are getting worse, not better.” #SDoH #PEoH #HiAP #IRoS statnews.com/2018/01/04/lif…
Read 154 tweets

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