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1. I think that this is probably a miscalculation. No deal means large scale deliberalisation very quickly. Once that horse has bolted I'm not sure it comes back. Then you have the time it will take for the EU member states to approve a new mandate under a different legal base.
2. Is the WA acceded to under duress really sustainable? Is there any possibility of conducting a negotiation after that? There would be low-level technical cooperation on the border. The UK would probably agree to pay the money. But it would set in motion a radical divergence.
3. The trade that was underpinned by those relationships would be lost in the months following and supply chains would begin restructuring. The value of a deal beyond resolving the choke points of port would then be diminished (assuming temporary unilateral measures stay)
4. Of course the two sides would return to the table, but after damage has been done. The UK could still accept the terms of the WA after that - (I don't know how either side deals with the Irish border) but I don't think it does so in a few weeks
