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NAO have released an update on the UK's border preparedness for EU exit update. The headline: Six of the eight IT critical systems remain at risk of not being delivered on time and to acceptable quality and four relating to the process for embedding them 1/
We have got round the amber-red rating of other systems by stopping reporting them - because they've been "derisked." It was a huge task to get CDS ready and to connect it to the various other systems and they've accepted this won't be possible. (Apologies for table) 2/ 
The good news is CHIEF has been tested to handle up to 300 million declarations (up from 55 now) and is on track to be ready. But the big problem is the border is reliant on a number of systems working together. Other critical pieces of IT are not ready and are not integrated 3/
When it comes to what happens on day one, the UK will prioritise flow over control. It has, as has been reported, brought forward a number of simplifications lasting for 15 months. Transit will be upscaled but it doesn't have the actual infrastructure or authorisations in place 4
When it comes to the actual traders, they remain a significant risk. Most are not prepared. 50% of small businesses were yet to take action to prepare for ‘no deal’. As the Government's no deal preparation updates made clear, this is apparently their fault. 5/
The Northern Irish border is yet to have a policy. We don't know what the UK Government will do. This is also a problem for the EU as I outline here instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/eu%E2%80%… 6/
All in all, as it stands there will be delays at Dover. There are multiple critical systems that are not ready and traders aren't prepared. The simplifications that HMRC offer aren't a magic bullet and require infrastructure and resource - transit isn't going to solve it either.
