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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Rory S has decided:

1. Brexit absolutely must happen because "will of the people".
2. The only non-fantasy way to do it, given where we are, is with May's Deal.

He's almost right....
One could also argue that he's righter than any other leadership candidate. But that's a very low bar.
Being "righter" but still wrong is as good as it gets. May's Deal is wrong. No Deal is wrong. Remain is wrong. We're now balancing relative shitness. Rory S seems to have worked this out and made his choice. I may disagree, but at least he understands the issues and has chosen...
This is light years ahead and several dimensions removed from anyone else in the Conservative Party. For that alone he is to be commended.
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More from @rolandmcs see all

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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
So Boris Johnson will be our new PM.*

Inevitable really.

* Remain-voting Hunt won't.
Prediction: 'Remain-voting Hunt' will become popular cockney rhyming slang in Ukipified Tory associations up and down the land.
More seriously, I think neither men will allow No Deal.
Read 3 tweets
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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
Carswell reflects a widespread impulse within Leavery: of 'plucky' dispossessed rebel outsiders heroically standing up to a torporous 'system' that has lost sight of 'basic common sense' founded on old wisdoms from Ricardo to Thatcher (the latter being a model battler-outsider)
And the Right might indeed overthrow 'the system' but not from any knowledge of how modern world trade actually works nor of the EU. These are simple rebels with an ill-defined and misunderstood cause.
And the Right of British Politics is riding this animal in the expectation that they can repeat a Thatcher-esque revolution - that a handful of rebel outriders in law, economics, and politics [and climate change] are right and everyone else is wrong.
Read 5 tweets
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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
40% of Leave voters do *not* prefer No Deal.
27% of Leave voters prefer either a softer Brexit than May's Deal or prefer Remain.
10% of Leave voters just prefer Remain.
(From @YouGov and @UKandEU) newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
For me, this chimes with a whole series of surveys going back to 2016, showing about 20% (and sometimes much higher) in the liberal Leave space....
medium.com/@WhiteWednesda…
Kantar also posed similar questions more recently (April) with quite a similar outcome pattern to YouGov.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Why does no-one talk about the EU trade defecit or German car makers any more?

The £350m & the lies on immigration were important but an absolute consistent #Brexit tag line was "they need us more than we need them"

*that* was the Brexit on offer, a desperate, pliant EU
2) the sequence of events is very simple yet never picked up by our media who cannot look back more than 48 hours:

- Brexiters told us the German car makers because of our huge trade defecit would be desperate for a trade deal
- "its in their interest, they have more to lose"
3) - Gove, Johnson, Davis, Grayling, Farage, all of them said we were guaranteed a better #Brexit deal than we have now

Some of them might even have believed it.

- we wouldn't need to be *in* the Single Market because we would have full *access* to it, at no cost to the UK
Read 14 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right. Congrats to all those that knifed @theresa_may - she was pretty useless, and the author of her own failure to deliver #Brexit

But the reality is that it wasn't 'her' deal...it was a deal created by gravity, not strategy.

So can the next man/woman defy gravity? 1/thread
@theresa_may Because, to re-cap, @theresa_may began in her first conference speech in Octber 2016 by shooting for the #Brexit stars.

She was going to have Britain float free - of the ECJ, of the Customs Union, of the Single Market - and yet by some miracle.... /2
@theresa_may ....retain 'frictionless' trade with Europe. Like @BorisJohnson she was 'pro having cake, and pro eatiing it'....

But then step by step gravity took over as she tried to square circles and resolve the dreaded Irish trilemma/3
Read 25 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right. It's Friday. A quick #Brexit sitrep, as I understand it, with chats from both sides.

Tldr: the tiller of SS Britannia seems stuck fast, and the No Deal rapids lie dead ahead....is there anything that will blow the ship to the safety of the shore? /1
There are lots of murmurs round Westminster that MPs now want to back the deal - this kind of stuff noted in @Jack_Blanchard_ playbook. /2
@Jack_Blanchard_ But dig a little deeper, and ask people in Commons/Lords if acceptance of a deal requires Cox/May to win changes to the backstop - a time-limit, an exit mechanism - they say 'oh yes, of course'... /3
Read 21 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
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Becky Wragg Sykes
@LeMoustier
Right I can't bear #Brexit so am treating everyone to a GIGANTIC THREAD on TRADE- #Neanderthal-style.

Hold onto your handaxes!
1/n
DID #NEANDERTHALS TRADE? An excellent question but extremely hard to answer (even for early Homo sapiens) because it relies on a lot of assumptions about how Neanderthal society was organised.
We’ve got two ways in:
- how things were moved around
- how people moved around
The biggest & best-studied category of artefacts to help us look for #Neanderthal trade is lithics: stone tools. Decades of research on where rock was sourced vs. where it ended up shows everybody, including Upper Palaeolithic H. sapiens, mostly shifted stone small distances.
Read 33 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
One thing leavers were right about is that it's a lot easier to give power away than it is to get back. Having done so without consent we now see that we gave away more than our politicians realised. That's why they're not trusted and that's why compromise is impossible.

#Brexit
2. They tried to fob us off by telling us that no further powers would be given away but every piece of legislation passed by the EU is on some level an erosion of national sovereignty. All of it happening off the radar - adopting laws through statutory instrument.
3. That's why nobody believed Cameron when he said we could opt out of ever closer union. Nobody can make that claim. It's in the DNA of the EU and if you are a member then that is what you are subscribed to. Voters may influence the pace, but not the destination.
Read 12 tweets

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