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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
40% of Leave voters do *not* prefer No Deal.
27% of Leave voters prefer either a softer Brexit than May's Deal or prefer Remain.
10% of Leave voters just prefer Remain.
(From @YouGov and @UKandEU) newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
For me, this chimes with a whole series of surveys going back to 2016, showing about 20% (and sometimes much higher) in the liberal Leave space....
medium.com/@WhiteWednesda…
Kantar also posed similar questions more recently (April) with quite a similar outcome pattern to YouGov.
And there are big similarities between this latest Yougov/@UKandEU poll and the big UCL-Yougov 5000 poll in April.....
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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
Carswell reflects a widespread impulse within Leavery: of 'plucky' dispossessed rebel outsiders heroically standing up to a torporous 'system' that has lost sight of 'basic common sense' founded on old wisdoms from Ricardo to Thatcher (the latter being a model battler-outsider)
And the Right might indeed overthrow 'the system' but not from any knowledge of how modern world trade actually works nor of the EU. These are simple rebels with an ill-defined and misunderstood cause.
And the Right of British Politics is riding this animal in the expectation that they can repeat a Thatcher-esque revolution - that a handful of rebel outriders in law, economics, and politics [and climate change] are right and everyone else is wrong.
Read 5 tweets
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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
"One of the best-informed journalists around"..?
Here is "one of the best-informed journalists around" on how Brexit would work....
More from "one of the best-informed journalists around"...
Read 3 tweets
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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
Hearing the Esther McVey story reminded me of Dr Donald Trefusis (aka Stephen Fry) talking about "Parent Power"...
I've always been a fan of Stephen Fry - an irregular trait in Rightist circles - but I'm starting to think I should have taken what he was saying more seriously.
More parent power...
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Is there middle path through the #Brexit impasse? It doesn't feel like it, but after a few days in Brussels I've sketched one out - before you burst out laughing, bear with me 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
So as things stand, the positions are clear. @MichelBarnier says the Withdrawal Agreement is the "only option" and the EU member states concur.

nybooks.com/daily/2019/05/…

Am told at EUCO dinner this week this was repeated: "not a dot or comma will change", per UK source. /2
@MichelBarnier And given that even softer Tory leadership candidates like @Jeremy_Hunt says that the Withdrawal Agreement must be renegotiated, it would seem that any new PM is on a collision course with the EU. /3
Read 22 tweets
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Helene von Bismarck
@HeleneBismarck
Impressions from conversations with German and British officials, think-tankers and politicians at the Königswinter Conference on 11-12 April. Disclaimer: this is just my personal take and by no means a comprehensive report. Thread 1
After the Brexit intensity of the last few months, it was so impressive that the British delegation found its way to Berlin on the day after the EUCO cliff-edge. Also, Kudos to the German organizers who were forced to update the Programme almost hourly over the last few weeks. 2
Much has been made in the press over the last few days of 🇩🇪 playing good cop to Macron‘s bad cop over the question of an Article 50 Extension at EUCO on 10 April. But 3
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Latest piece. With short #Brexit thread
Mood in Brussels is bleak. Many senior EU officials now put odds of no-deal at 60% or higher—their central scenario. Discussions are starting on how to cushion the EU’s economy from any macroeconomic blow that may arise from no-deal Brexit 1/
Senior EU officials think May’s deal is sunk. They’re sceptical the Commons can coalesce around an alternative plan 2/
Read 16 tweets
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Tom Kibasi
@TomKibasi
THREAD: The myth of the soft Brexit majority.

A majority in this parliament needs to get to 320. It's been repeated so often that it has become a truth—that there is a majority for a soft Brexit in parliament.

Here's why that's almost certainly not the case.

(1/9)
Let's start with the Labour Party (245 MPs).

Soft Brexit is the position of the leadership (see JC letter to TM 6/2).

But there are at least 60 strong backers of a people's vote in the PLP & maybe 5 who want a harder Brexit.

So Labour brings max 180 MPs to soft Brexit.

(2/9)
What would the SNP do?

Well, Scotland voted to Remain, and yesterday Sturgeon said: "preferably asking for a longer extension to put the issue back to voters".

So don't count on any SNP support for soft Brexit

(3/9)
Read 12 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
New - it's still a coin toss

"Imagine there was referendum tomorrow. Should the UK remain a member of EU or leave?"

Remain 51%
Leave 49%

Leavers 92% "Leave"
Remainers 90% "Remain"
Conservatives 68% "Leave"
Labour 68% "Remain"

Survation Jan 11
"When negotiations are complete, would you support or oppose holding a People's Vote -a referendum- asking public their view?"

Support 46%
Oppose 34%
Don't know 20%

Leavers 58% "oppose"
Remainers 71% "support"
Cons 54% "oppose"
Lab 59% "support"

Survation Jan 11 #Brexit
"MPs are to vote on government Brexit withdrawal agreement next week. How would you like MPs to vote?"

For deal 36%
Against 40%
Don't know 23%

Leavers (46% For, 39% against, 15% dk)
Remainers (34% for, 48% against, 19% dk)

Survation Jan 11
Read 6 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) the #Brexit 2nd ref, a possible solution to the options

As momentum builds for a #PeoplesVote there's some concern that the Leave side will pull the same tricks they pulled first time around

What if we could ensure fair, or at least fairer, play by all sides?
Here's 1 option
2) there's 2 distinct characteristics of the Leave campaign, 1 of which was arguably unique.

The first was that the offer from Vote Leave was fluid & vague. It would move from "we'll stay in the SM" to "we'll get access" to "the SM doesn't matter" and back
3) the second characteristic was even more unusual. The Vote Leave campaign, perhaps for the first time in UK history, made promises & took positions based on what a 3rd party, outside the UK, would do

Essentially Leave made promises concerning the EU they had no control over
Read 16 tweets

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