Thread by @NGrossman81

To Everyone Mocking Dems Who Said Climate Change is Geopolitical Threat:
The US military thinks it is too.
Rising seas will cause destabilizing refugee flows. Water wars possible.
Unlike ideologues, Pentagon planners care about probability, security, and cost-benefit. Thankfully.

Biggest threat from climate change isn't a Hollywood-style natural disaster that kills millions. It's politics.
Look at the US, upset over tens of thousands of migrants. At EU, strained by a few million refugees.
Well... 100s of millions of people live at or below sea level.
2/x

Over 2/3 of "mission critical" US military bases are threatened by climate change. 53 of 79 from flooding, 36 from wildfires.
America's defense posture at risk.
Whatever else you ID as a geopolitical threat, functional bases is part of dealing with it.
3/x
militarytimes.com/news/your-mili…

The biggest hit the US Air Force has taken in decades came from a hurricane. Jets that are really hard for any other country to shoot down got destroyed by a storm. Cost billions of dollars.
4/x
popularmechanics.com/military/aviat…

Think people fighting over oil, or other wants, is a big deal? What about fighting over fresh water, our biggest need?
Disappearing, or just shifting water resources could easily cause war. Arguably, already has--dwindling water drove herders v. farmers conflict in Darfur.
5/x

Are these climate change-associated dangers guaranteed?
Of course not. NatSec planning deals in probabilities, not guarantees. No guarantee Russia will attack Balkans, Iran will get nukes, or China will challenge US for global supremacy.
But risk's high enough to worry about.
6/x

Recognizing climate change as a serious geopolitical threat does not require you to support any particular response.
But dismissing the dangers out of hand? Only a fool, ignoramus, or head-in-the-sand ideologue would do that.
(END)