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I'd love to know Pelosi's impeachment logic. Her real logic, not what she'll say in public.
Whose vote or turnout does she think it'll change in 2020? Does she want to delay and then "reluctantly" give in, or would she block unless removed as Speaker? Does precedent matter? Etc.
Whose vote or turnout does she think it'll change in 2020? Does she want to delay and then "reluctantly" give in, or would she block unless removed as Speaker? Does precedent matter? Etc.
When I say I'm curious about Pelosi's impeachment logic, I mean her true preferences and the details of her calculations. The why, not just the what. (I don't expect we'll find out).
Let me show you what I mean using some of your replies to the first tweet in this thread.
Let me show you what I mean using some of your replies to the first tweet in this thread.
Trump claims vindication from the Mueller report and from lack of impeachment proceedings (even Democrats know...). He'd claim vindication from the Senate not removing him.
Why does Pelosi think the last one's politically damaging and the first two aren't?
Why does Pelosi think the last one's politically damaging and the first two aren't?
Why does Pelosi think it would bolster Trump? Which voters in which districts won't vote, but will turn out then? Which would vote Dem but then won't? If impeachment would motivate some currently unmotivated voters, will not impeaching affect motivation?
Clinton's approval ratings rose after impeachment and then Bush narrowly won the White House.
Does Pelosi think Clinton and Trump's actions are similar? That Dems would act as GOP did? Why does she think voters won't treat them differently? Which voters?
Does Pelosi think Clinton and Trump's actions are similar? That Dems would act as GOP did? Why does she think voters won't treat them differently? Which voters?
This makes sense. But why does Pelosi think impeachment (followed by likely Senate acquittal) would reduce anti-Trump fundraising? Are there any donors who won't give money if there's no impeachment? Who won't give money if there is? Which donors?
How much does Pelosi think it's important to follow whatever polls say and how much should public figures try to lead and shape public opinion? Why? In what ways does she give a different answer for this on impeachment compared to other issues?
Why, exactly, does she think impeachment is risky? What, specifically, are the risks? How would impeachment change those risks' probabilities? Does she think not impeaching is risk-free?
Good example of what I mean by Pelosi's priorities.
Conventional wisdom says her impeachment calculus is based on the race for the White House. But is her top priority retaining Dems' House majority? If yes, how much do White House and Senate factor in?
Conventional wisdom says her impeachment calculus is based on the race for the White House. But is her top priority retaining Dems' House majority? If yes, how much do White House and Senate factor in?
I'll stop here. Thanks for the replies.
These questions show we don't really know what Pelosi's thinking on impeachment. Some of your guesses sound reasonable, but they're still guesses. And I doubt she'd give straightforward answers if asked any of the more detailed questions.
These questions show we don't really know what Pelosi's thinking on impeachment. Some of your guesses sound reasonable, but they're still guesses. And I doubt she'd give straightforward answers if asked any of the more detailed questions.
Ok, just saw some additional interesting replies about Pelosi's impeachment logic, so here's a few more questions.
Does Pelosi really think Democratic candidates can't talk about various non-impeachment issues if the House initiates impeachment hearings? Why? How much is that guess based on her guesses about what candidates, voters, or media will do?
This disagrees that Pelosi is prioritizing the 2020 election and her predictions about voter reactions, speculating that she thinks impeachment isn't warranted on the merits. Does she? Why? What actions in office does she think would warrant impeachment?
When I wondered what Pelosi's thinking about impeachment, I got a lot of responses (thanks). But the speculation didn't match up. And no one could really support their speculation with evidence, because there isn't much. Shows how many of the above questions are unknowns.
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