Thread by @ravisaraogi

Excited to be at the @CFASocietyIndia 'Masters at Work: Investing Frameworks that Win' conference at the beautiful city of Kolkata. Looking forward to some invigorating discussion with a great line up of speakers!

(1/n) Tweet thread below on some fascinating observations. Ramdeo's session: Equities represent limited downside and unlimited upside (!) Downside is 100%, upside is unlimited. #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(2/n) Ramdeo's session: How often have we heard about the power of compounding? Here are some numbers yo reflect on: Difference between 10 and 30 years is not 3x but 87x. Buffet's 22% CAGR over 58 years grew capital at 85,000x ! #maw

(3/n) Ramdeo's own journey in the markets succinctly put in an explosive graph. 28% CAGR over 30 years, multiplying capital 1,660x #maw

(4/n) Ramdeo's session: Each of these names represent a great investment story and learning. And each of these names have taught me many things about my investing framework #maw #mastersatwork

Ramdeo's session: Even after stupendous growth in markets, India still represents a massive growth opportunity with lot of money to be made #maw #mastersatwork

(6/n) @SunilBSinghania in conversation with Ramdeo: SS- Earnings growth has not come, are you still bullish? Ramdeo- Currently Profits/GDP depressed at ~ 2%, I expect it to revert to 5%, hence still bullish! #maw #mastersatwork

(7/n) @SunilBSinghania - how should investors tackle disruption? Ramdeo - Disruption is over-hyped. Apart from a few categories, life habits over previous decades have remained mostly static. And always remember what Buffet said, 'dont invest if you dont understand' #maw

(8/n) Gear up for @neelkanthmishra's talk on " A cyclical, not a structural slowdown" #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(9/n) @neelkanthmishra's session : Growth has undoubtedly weakened as reflected in auto sales, tepid oil and power demand, FMCG volumes, pay commission driven consumption is fading, money supply has been in short supply..

(10/n) @neelkanthmishra's session: Money supply falling has severe implications for the money multiplier process through credit market. Space left over by PSBs only partly filled by private banks, leading to tepid credit growth and money creation #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(11/n) @neelkanthmishra's session: There is aggressive monetary tightening. "There needs to be significant monetary easing". Borrowing rates 2-2.25% higher than they should be. I expect term premiums to come down significantly over the next few years. #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(12/n) Lot of confusion between savings rate and financial savings. Financial savings at record highs (MF inflows + govt small saving schemes). There is incredible financialization of savings and growth mix shifting towards investments. #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(13/n) @neelkanthmishra's session: Why am I bullish? a) Roads b) Electricity c) Cellphones (cheap data can significantly increase labour utilization, network effects, better inventory management)... (cont) #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(14/n) @neelkanthmishra's session: (cont) d) earlier, two-third households used primtive fuels, this is changing e) we are now food surplus (we are consuming lower per capita calorie due to using mechanical implements which require us to expend lower calories) @CFASocietyIndia

(15/n) @neelkanthmishra's session: Earlier growth in agri driven by price increase, now we are seeing a new low in prices, and future growth in agri to come from yield improvements. Current low agri prices could be more permanent #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(16/n) @neelkanthmishra's session: Risks - a) credit growth impaired due to public sector banks b) we are inefficient in using energy. 2040 energy demand to be 2-3.5x higher c) import dependency for denser forms of fuel to increase #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(17/n) @neelkanthmishra in conversation with Ritika Mankar (Ambit) : With increasing energy usage and growth, how do we tackle pollution? NM - Carbon pollution is not the only problem, water pollution could create growth challenges for both agri and industry @CFASocietyIndia

(18/n) Kuntal Shah (Partner - Oaklane Capital) session: We can learn a lot about investing mistakes from studying capital market history #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(19/n) Kuntal Shah session: Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered! Dont be a pig and get fooled by fads. Over history, there have been several such fads and the cycle remains the same #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(20/n) Kuntal Shah session: "I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men" - Newton. The South Sea Bubble fooled one of the most brilliant men to have ever lived #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(21/n) And now for the legendary Sanjoy Bhattacharyya's session : The Rewards of Good Behaviour. Many people say "behavioural finance is great, but it does now work". So how do we make it work? #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(22/n) From Sapiens - thought experiment - you are in an aircraft with a large primate. Plane crashes and you are in an island with the primate. You die. Replicate the experiment - there are 100 humans & 100 primates. Humans prosper. Why? Social cohesion! @CFASocietyIndia

(23/n) In the stock market - you do not want to get trapped in a social cohesion. If you are smart, you will break from social cohesion and make wealth for your next 7 generations. "You need another 2008 to make money!" #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(24/n) The brain is a sucker for heuristics. Kahneman's Thinking Fast & Slow is a window into these processes. These rule-of-thumbs and heuristics while they allow lazy thinking, are a bomb for investing. The brain is wired for mis-investing! #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(25/n) Outside India, the conversation on investing quickly moves towards risks. In India, the most important question is "which is my next multi-bagger". The lack of attention to managing risk betrays the greed of the Indian investor. #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(26/n) Invert, disconfirm, find out an analyst who disagrees with your view, encourage dissent, "the more random the idea, the more certain we tend to become" #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(27/n) Selling is the dark-continent of investing. I continued to hold Infosys through out the dot-com bust, even though it touched a PE of 100. I was sleeping at the wheel. When to sell is the most difficult decision to make. #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(28/n) Must read book recommendation from Sanjoy : The Zurich Axioms. "When the ship starts to sink, don't pray. Jump." #maw @CFASocietyIndia

(29/29) This brings us to the curtains. Until next year ofcourse!