Thread by @AukeHoekstra

Can we disrupt the cow?
Thought provoking, extensively researched and well written long read on meat replacements by @seth8miller

Probably the best I've read on the subject but I disagree with the conclusion that disrupting will be very hard (thread)
perspicacity.xyz/2019/07/07/is-…

I *love* all the thought provoking analogies and the relevant base data. This really informs the reader and gives her or him a springboard that could lead to new ideas.

Also it's good that Seth moves beyond simple conversion efficiency (really bad for a cow) and looks at the entire supply chain (where most of that inefficiency is miraculously compensated). I could really use that broader perspective.

And I'm a well known fan of learning curves but you must be careful to blindly apply them this early in the game. Also the height is debatable: is it 17% as Seth suggests (10x prod is half price means 17% reduction for every doubling) or 25%: makes a big difference.

Most of all you must distangle them:

What are the steps in the supply chain and what is the learning per step?

What tech is only relevant for beef and what for all meat replacement?

What part of cost is R&D and marketing?

Only once you have a thorough understanding of learning curves for the important step and you can do a bottom-up analysis for each step that seems plausible can you start extrapolating learning curves.

So I still believe meat replacement will become much cheaper (and tastier and healthier) but I've learned a lot today. Thx!

Tip for @seth8miller: make the posts much shorter and simpler if you want a wider audience. But the quality is top notch!