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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Hey, y'all! Here's an article explaining our new NBA defensive metric, DRAYMOND, which is based on opponents' shooting data. We think it's pretty cool and captures important parts of defense that other advanced stats miss!

53eig.ht/2LbgMfs
DRAYMOND stands for

Defensive
Rating
Accounting for
Yielding
Minimal
Openness by
Nearest
Defender

🏀🙄🏀 (there should be a basketball rolling eyes emoji)
The best DRAYMOND defenders since 2013-14:
Draymond!!
Embid
Porzingis!
Gobert
Duncan
Andre Roberson
AD
The lists of players that DRAYMOND thinks are underrated and overrated by other advanced metrics are also fun. It tends to have strong opinions about point guards; thinks Westbrook's defense is really overrated by other advanced metrics, for instance.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Your hypothesis relies on data that's (i) 8 months old (ii) was collected mostly online (fine but not gold-standard) (iii) involves a lot of statistical extrapolation (iv) is calibrated to 2018 rather than 2020 turnout (v) is based on approval rather than head-to-head matchups.
All of which is… fine… to get a rough approximation. But the real-world margin of error on those estimates is (at least) several points wide, which is much too large to come to many firm conclusions about the tipping point, especially if you're not working probabilistically.
There's also a fairly large volume of polling that shows Biden (and to some extent Bernie) performing quite well vs. Trump in head-to-head matchups in the Midwest. I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that data, either. But it's not just one poll in Ohio. 53eig.ht/2IWBgHX
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
That very long Al Franken story brings up extremely few exculpatory facts about Al Franken's alleged behavior.
If you want to make *this* argument—that there are degrees of misconduct & this didn't rise to the level of warranting resignation—I don't know if I agree but that's honest at least.

Instead, though, Ds defending Franken make these totally incoherent claims about "due process".
Those "due process" arguments look WORSE in light of this story. Despite it presenting the evidence in a fairly sympathetic light for Franken, it doesn't really offer any reason to disbelieve his several accusers, and his own defenses are pretty half-hearted.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I'd probably lean no. I certainly think Trump could win an election where he loses the popular vote by 3 points or even slightly more. That's basically what he did in 2016. (He won WI, the tipping-point state, with ~1 point to spare.) But I'm skeptical that he'd be the favorite.
The reason is that I see this as being a fairly dynamic process. To be honest this is sort of my critique of the @Redistrict/@Nate_Cohn Electoral College analysis; I think they focus on a more static, modal outcome rather than the range of plausible outcomes.
The Obama-era coalition was fairly favorable to Democrats in the Electoral College. Obama would likely have WON an Election in 2008 or 2012 in which the popular vote was very close. This wasn't that long ago.
Read 6 tweets

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Clinical Pearl
@ClinicalPearl
We're gonna take a minute and I'm gonna talk about my favorite thing: OMM (osteopathic manipulative medicine)!

Thread incoming.
There is a lot of confusion, misunderstanding, and downright bad information out there about exactly what osteopathic manipulative medicine is and isn't, and I hope to clarify some of that.
For the purposes of this thread, all references to OMM/OMT will refer to the US only. Osteopaths exist outside the United States, but their education and practice is limited to manual medicine only; in the US, osteopathic physicians are trained and certified as physicians.
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Jonathan Adamczewski
@twoscomplement
A thread about navigation mesh and Sunset Overdrive...
Navigation mesh encodes where in the game world an agent can stand, and where it can go. (here "agent" means bot, actor, enemy, NPC, etc)
At runtime, the main thing navigation mesh is used for is to find paths between points using an algorithm like A* en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A*_search…
Read 54 tweets
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Jennifer Cohn
@jennycohn1
Bad actors can program or hack Hybrid voting systems to add fake text to machine-marked barcoded paper ballots AFTER they are cast. The article below ASSUMES this won’t occur & thus falsely implies the text can be used to reliably audit the barcode. 1/ salon.com/2019/03/30/doe…
2/ Here is my article explaining that new Hybrid voting systems route machine-marked barcoded paper ballots under the printer head AFTER they are cast, which means that bad actors could program or hack the machines to add fake votes after ballots are cast. salon.com/2019/03/28/new…
3/ The pro-vendor article in post 1 circumvents these inconvenient & indisputable facts by mocking cybersecurity experts & advocates as “security maximalists.” It offers no substantive argument at all for disregarding this obvious security hole. salon.com/2019/03/30/doe…
Read 8 tweets
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Q
@literallyjustq
A little thread, which I may come back to, for all those #technophobes who blame rise in #suicide on #socialmedia.

First: legit, what rise?
Second: The actual experts do not agree with you, and your fear-mongering is likely causing more harm than good.
cf. Thomas, K, and Gunnell, D. (2010). Suicide in England and Wales 1861–2007: a time-trends analysis. International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 39, Issue 6, December 2010, Pages 1464–1475.
So, first the data, from #UK (above) and elsewhere (below).

Clearly if this epidemic was *caused* by a *single* factor it would permeate all societies with social media.

[Suicide Rates for Teens Aged 15–19 Years, by Sex — United States, 1975–2015, #USA]
Read 126 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
New #PA Congressional map is pretty much the best one Democrats could have hoped for. At least 2 pickups in neutral environment, likely ability to win 11 in current D+6 environment. Post coming
PA redraw creates map that is almost entirely drawn from scratch. Huge shifts from 2016 plan all over the place. Dems favored to win 9 seats there in almost any national environment.
(big swings mostly from renumbering, but aggregate differences are clear)
Read 11 tweets

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