Thread by @Usherwood

Ahead of a busy week in London, a quick list of things that matter in the blockage of the Brexit process

NB - the identity of the PM isn't one of them

1/

The biggest issue is that the UK still does not have a consensus view on what the purpose of the entire exercise is.

Lots of people have ideas, but none has been able to turn that into a conceptualisation that is widely supported

2/

That leads into a second key problem: no-one is in a politically strong enough position to force that consensus view.

There's no coalition of forces that enjoys a robust majority in the Commons for a positive course of action

3/

And no, avoiding no-deal, isn't a positive course of action, because no-deal is and remains the default outcome of this, so to avoid it, you have to choose to do something else.

Right now, there's no consensus on how to do that

4/

So there's no majority for leaving with a deal, or for not leaving, and there's a majority against leaving without a deal.

Even the semi-decision of asking for more time isn't definitely able to secure a majority

5/

Behind all this, there's another huge difficulty: the polarisation of public debate.

The political and public space for something between no-deal and no Brexit has few champions and scant supporters

6/

Instead, it's the territory of highly ambiguous positions by various politicians, who're very exposed to attacks from either side for their compromises.

7/

These factors reinforce each other: the lack of a consensus and the lack of anyone with the structural power to impose a consensus means all sides feel they have everything to play for, and thus no reason to compromise

8/

So yes, a fresh face in No.10 might pep up the mood among some sections of debate, but it doesn't change any of the fundamentals behind that.

9/

Importantly, the notion that a new leader can produce a cunning new way to keep everyone on-board, while addressing all concerns, is nonsense.

There is no conceivable way of putting together the central deal on Withdrawal that has not been picked over at length

10/

Indeed, promising a wild new solution is likely to generate more frustration and dissatisfaction than it is a growing core of support.

11/

So, in the words of a politician whose rep might come to improve a bit in time (but not by much), "Nothing has changed"

/end