Thread by @ajplus

Mexico's new populist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (#AMLO), campaigned in large part on promises to end the country's decade-long war on drugs and scale back the militarization of its security forces. But is the end really in sight? @PJAsmann explains for AJ+: (1/10)

In 2006, then-President Felipe Calderón deployed thousands of federal troops to combat organized crime. Since then, some 200,000 people have been killed. President López Obrador, known as AMLO, has touted a master plan that helped propel him to office: end the drug war. (2/10)

But phasing out militarization is no easy task. Mexico has pursued this strategy for more than 10 years, aided by millions of dollars in U.S. support. In 2017 alone, over 50,000 soldiers were deployed to the streets for domestic security operations. (3/10)
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AMLO soon reversed course. Militarization was in fact going to continue, this time in the form of a 70,000-strong National Guard force made up of veterans of the military and federal police, and headed by an experienced army general. (4/10)
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Soon, members of the force will be sent to places like Guanajuato – where rival crime groups are battling over control of fuel theft – and Jalisco, home base of one of Mexico's most powerful organized crime groups: the Jalisco Cartel New Generation. (5/10) vallartadaily.com/why-is-the-nat…

AMLO hopes these deployments will help reduce Mexico's extraordinary levels of violence, but history suggests they won't. 2017 was the most homicidal year ever recorded in Mexico's history. That record was broken in 2018, and is on pace to be shattered again in 2019. (6/10)

One way to work toward long-term crime and violence reduction using security forces in Mexico is to start from the ground up and reform the existing municipal police. In areas with the highest public security risks, these units are underpaid, overworked and understaffed. (7/10)

Because of underinvestment, local authorities are often corrupted by organized crime groups, which can provide steady income and protection in areas where the state has lost legitimacy. This sometimes leads to entire police forces being shut down. (8/10)
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For now, all signs suggest police reform will have to wait as militarization marches on. AMLO is committed to his "new" National Guard force. He's increased the National Defense Secretariat's budget and allocated more resources to the military. (9/10)
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AMLO may not be able to put an end to Mexico's drug war just yet, but his proposals to decriminalize all drugs and redirect foreign aid toward development at least suggest that he's willing to shift course. (10/10)
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